2008 Red-Sox Yankees Comparison- Starting Pitching (#'s 1-2)

This is the biggest part of the team and I`ve purposely left it to the end so everything becomes clear (I still have the bullpen and I might not get that done before Opening Day, sorry guys). Because of the way the rotation works I`m going to do it in a different format from the others so it doesn't take an hour to read.



Starting Pitching



Number One Starter- Chien Ming Wang/Josh Beckett- Wang emerged in 2006 as the Yankees ace using a brilliant sinker at an average of 93.1 mph. Over the offseason he drew a lot of criticism from people that pointed to his low K/9 and K/BB totals and said his performance in 2006 was due to luck. So how did 2007 happen? Wang continued using his sinker ball which kept home run totals down, which was a big factor in his 2006 success, but during spring training he improved his slider and his changeup. He started using those more and got more K's as a result. His walks increased as well but it was worth it. His K/BB shot up .3 points and his K/9 by 1.56 (his BB/9 also went up). If he can continue to improve his strikeout totals without giving up more home runs he can take it to the next level. Wang is going to be under a lot of pressure this year with all the innings limits on the younger pitchers and we have to hope he can deliver. Josh Beckett on the other hand has never had a problem with strikeouts. Beckett beat his first problem in 2006 of injury but he got murdered by HR`s and ended up with an ERA just over 5.00. The deal was crticized as a disaster but Beckett came back with a brilliant 2007 just missing a CYA. Everything that could possibly improve did improve in 2007. His K/9 went up by 1.75 points, his BB/9 went down 1.46 points, his K/BB went up 2.71 points, and his HR/9 went down .82 points. So how the hell did this drastic a change happen between two years? His GB% didn't really change but his HR/FB% went down from an extremely unlucky 2006 (15.4%) to a slightly lucky 2007 (8%). That explains the incredibly change in HR/9. Where did those strikeout and walk numbers come from though? His curveball improved hugely and Beckett started relying on it more. He used his curveball 3.9% more of the time. So which Beckett is the real Beckett? For years we`ve known Beckett had a ton of talent and were just waiting for him to emerge so I think that its 2007 Beckett. Obviously, he won't repeat 2007 but he`s a very very good pitcher.

Conclusion- Josh Beckett- Wang is a good pitcher who had a solid RCA of 4.34 but he isn't really a true ace. Ideally he should be a #2 or maybe even a #3 guy. He was still a little lucky despite lowering his dependance on his sinker ball. However, Beckett was unbelievable and earned his reputation as one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. He had a staggering 2.96 RCA and he will be a threat to the Yankees for the next few years.

Number Two Starter- Andy Pettitte/Daisuke Matsuzaka- Petttitte made his return to the Yankees and silenced all critics who thought he was to old to contribute in the American League. He was decent but his K/BB did fall off which is a big problem. His K/BB fell by .5 points. This was not due to loss of control (his control actually improved) but his K/9 fell off terribly. This was noted during the year and his continued success was attributed mainly to getting more GB's. However, this wasn't true. While, I don't think the steroid/HGH scandal will affect him he is getting older and will continue his decline. Matsuzaka had a solid season to back up his big deal. His 2.51 K/BB was very good although his GB% was a dissapointment to Red Sox fans. Although he had a good year many of the myths about him were debunked. For example, he never used the gyroball in a game. Also, his FB wasn't quite as fast as most people expected. If this is all Matsuzaka is he`s a good player and the market he`s given Boston in Japan is worth his deal. However, he could well be better next year after an adjustment.

Conclusion- Daisuke Matsuzaka- Matsuzaka had an RCA of 4.02 last year and is in his prime years. He could improve after an adjustment year like I mentioned above as well. Pettitte had an RCA of 4.43 and as he is aging. He`s only getting worse.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Designated Hitter

Designated Hitter

Yankees- Hideki Matsui- I`m assuming that Giambi will be at first base which is what it looks like at this point. Matsui came back well last year after missing a few months due to a wrist injury in 2006. He fell off a little bit from past years but that`s to be expected since he was still not completely recovered until a few months into the season. Matsui's a pretty inconsistent player but by the end of the year he usually comes pretty close to his career numbers. Even in a slight down year he still managed to get a .286 EQA (.290 career average). His defense was never great and he had definitely become a liability by last year. The move to DH should help him, he`s said he enjoys DH'ing and should be all right.

Red Sox- David Ortiz- While I think a lot of the credit Ortiz gets for being a clutch hitter is exxagerated and largely because of randomness he is without a doubt a very good player. He`s a hitting machine and shows no signs of slowing down even slightly. Last he had what is probably his best year yet. He had the best EQA of his career, .337, and the best BA and OBP as well. His SLG% was the second best of his career. Without him their no way that Boston could have won the World Series in 2004 or 2007. His baserunning is worthless but all in all he`s one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

Conclusion- Red Sox- Matsui is a good player but this one isn`t even close. Even without the clutch argument Ortiz is one of the best players in baseball and he doesn't even play the field.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Right- Field

Opening Day is coming soon and I`ve been busy lately so I`ve decided to change the way I`m going to work things. After I do RF and DH then I`m going to do the starting pitchers all at once instead of each player separately. I will do the bench and bullpen the same way.



Left-Field



Yankees- Johnny Damon- Damon is expected to get most of the time here. His move to left is long overdue. In recent years his arm has fallen to Bernie Williams levels. He reported to camp last year out of shape and his range definitely appeared to suffer. However, he will probably be an upgrade over Matsui defensively who was in left most of the season. Damon's hitting also declined last year. After having a year with his second highest career SLG% he posted the fourth lowest of his career with it dropping almost 90 points. Keep in mind two of the three years worse than that happened in his first and second full years. His BA suffered greatly, although his OBP only fell a few points. His EQA was a nearly average .264. Supposedly this year he came into camp in great shape and hopefully this will help him reverse his decline.

Red Sox- Manny Ramirez- We all know who Manny is. He`s a future hall of famer and one of the best right handed hitters of all time. Manny also declined last year. His defense has always been terrible. Manny`s OBP of .388 is a lot lower from either what it was the year before or his career numbers. His SLG% was even worse. Last year it was .493 which is exactly a 100 point drop off. Its tough to say if its a one year anomaly or the start of his decline. Its probably a combination. He has one year left on his contract and then an option. Manny is stil a very good player.

Conclusion- Red Sox- Manny is clearly better. Damon has an edge in baserunning and fielding but Manny's advantage at the plate is just to huge to overcome.

Fransisco Cervelli out 8-10 weeks

In yesterday`s game an idiot who obviously has no chance of making the team barelled into Fransisco Cervelli. Now, Cervelli isn't a top prospect but this is just pure idiocy. This is a spring training game. He was obviously trying to get the attention of the Ray's manager and sadly it worked. I don't know if the Yankees should retaliate or not but Girardi was pretty angry yesterday about it.

A-Rod Sore Shoulder

A-Rod has a sore shoulder so he won't be throwing and will DH for a few days. Girardi says its no big deal. I sure hope so.

Reassignments

First cuts were today, here`s a list:

1B Eric Duncan
C Jesus Montero
INF Eduardo Nunez
C Austin Romine


Duncan really has falllen a lot but the others are no surprise.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Centerfield

Sorry I`ve been a little slow on this lately. I`ve been busy.



Center-field



Yankees- Melky Cabrera- Melky had a disastrous call up in 2005 but got a second chance in 2006 when we were just trying to find a stop-gap for Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui. Melky came through and really showed off his arm in LF. Then, in 2007 another injury opened the door for Melky again. Jason Giambi got pantar fascitis (not fun) and Johnny Damon was banged up forcing him to move to LF. Melky took over in center. His arm was a huge plus and his range isn't bad either. However, his hitting definitely dropped off. His impressive plate discipline in 2006 completely vanished and dropped to Cano like levels. His power didn't really grow either. 2008 is a big year for Melky. Austin Jackson is breathing down his neck and for the second year in a row the Yankees seemed willing to deal him in a trade. He is still very young and could easily break out this season but he needs to be less streaky. He`s exciting and fun to watch, especially in the field, but the bottom line is he needs to improve. I`ve been a big defender of Melky noting that he was on a better pace than stars like Damon, Beltran, and others but he needs to show improvement next year.



Red Sox- Jacoby Ellsbury- Despite being the target of ridicule at It Is High, It is Far, It is.....Caught. I have to admit he is a very good player. He played excellent defense. His line of .353/.394/.509 is also outstanding. He won't repeat that but it really shows his tremendous potential. Unlike most speedy centerfielders he also actually has shown some solid power for a rookie. Coco Crisp has without a doubt lost his job for good to Ellsbury. Ellsbury could be one of the best centerfielders in the league for years. The Red Sox were smart to refuse to trade him for Santana.

Conclusion- Red Sox- Sorry for having such a shorter feature on all the Boston players. I just don't know them as well. Ellsbury is just flat out better than Melky. They have similar ceilings but Ellsbury is more likely to reach it and at the moment he`s better. I`m a Melky fan but Boston gets the edge in this one.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Right Field

Right-Field

Yankees- Bobby Abreu- Abreu started off the year very very slowly. He hit only about .260 in the first half and was earning a lot of criticism for his fear of the walls on defense. Not coincedentally, when Abreu started hitting the Yankees started hitting. This slow start was widely attributed to him being out of shape in the Spring Training. Also, if you remember he had an injury in Spring Training last year. All in all, by the end of the year he ended up with a respectable line of .283/.369/.445. Good enough for him to get his one year option picked up by the Yankees. His defense is starting to become a flaw as well. Abreu is supposedly in great shape this year and A-Rod predicted a big year from him. I`m a little skeptical but you never know. He`s a solid stop-gap until Jackson or Tabata are ready but he`s likely to be gone after this year.

Red Sox- J.D. Drew- Drew was another one of the big signings last year by Theo Epstein. I didn't like it (well, as a Yankees fan I liked it a lot ;)) at the time because of his injury history. However, Drew has a ton of potential, when he is healthy he is a good player. Last year he was healthy but was still a dissapointment. His defense seemed to take a dip (though this may be a fluke). His power also fell. He had a big role in the playoffs though and still has time to make this deal worthwhile.

Conclusion- Yankees- Strangely enough, I give Abreu the advantage mostly based on his power advantage. Drew has a very slight advantage in OBP but Abreu actually has more power. They are identical for their careers but Abreu was much better in 2007 and slightly better in 2006. Abreu has also been doing this for a long career of consistency. Drew is still an injury risk.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Third Base

Third Base


Yankees- Alex Rodriguez- A-Rod started off last season insanely well. He had two huge walk-off homers in April and singlehandedly kept the team from falling to far. By the end of the season he was the obvious pick for the AL MVP and had cemented his spot as the best player in baseball again. He was criticized for his playoff performance less so than before. However, on the day the Red Sox won the World Series A-Rod opted out of his contract. Hank said they wouldn't go after him either. For a while we had to deal with the thought of A-Rod playing shortstop for the Red Sox while we had Wilson Betemit at third. Instead though, Alex came back to the Yankees and asked to return to negotiations. After a day or two we started hearing they had a 10 year, 275 million dollar deal ready (maximum 300 million with incentives) and were just working out details. While many Yankees fans groaned most seem to have accepted him and decided having one of the top ten players in baseball history playing third base might not be such a bad thing after all. While I doubt he`ll repeat his amazing 2007 season (.355 EQA from a guy that should be playing shortstop is just insane) he should still be the best third baseman in baseball.

Red Sox- Mike Lowell- Lowell was supposed to be a salary dump from the Marlins to the Red Sox in the Josh Beckett deal. Instead, he was the answer for the Red Sox at third base. He was always a great defender. However, after an awful 2005 he took off at the plate. Last year he improved again. He ended 2007 as the World Series MVP and Boston fans were chanting "Bring back Lowell" during the World Series in anticipation of his free agency. They eventually did resign him but not before the Yankees considered him for first base (possibly just to push up the price). He eventually got a three year extension for 38 million.

Conclusion- Yankees- Lowell is a very good player for Boston but their's just no comparison between A-Rod and Lowell. A-Rod's got a chance for the all-time HR record, a chance at being one of the top 10 players of all-time, a chance at being the greatest third baseman ever, and already is a lock for the Hall of Fame. In an off year in 2006 when A-Rod was booed he was still better than Lowell's very best season. Again, most teams would love to have Lowell on their team but A-Rod's in a class of his own.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Shortstop

Shortstop

Yankees- Derek Jeter- Jeter will spend his first year without Joe Torre as his manager since getting called up. It will be interesting to see how this affects him but my guess is that it won't and I think most fans agree with me. Jeter is a player I admittedly think is very overrated on defense and with his supposed intangibles and clutch ability. As a result I (and other fans who agree with me on this) tend to overstate our opinion to "compensate" for these fans that believe Jeter is god. The truth is that, although his clutch ability, gold glove defense, and "intangibles" are all either exxagerated or myths, Jeter is one of the best hitting shortstops in history. Barring injury or sudden retirement he`s going to be the first Yankee to get 3,000 hits. He has been an integral part of the championship run. I believe its past time to move him to a new posistion. Second base, first base, and the corner outfield spots should all be possibilities. Jeter is still one of the best shortstops in baaseball even with this critical flaw.

Red Sox- Julio Lugo- So far this looks like a failed signing. Last year the Red Sox him to a four year thirty-six million dollar deal (9 million/year). When they first made the signing I didn't think it made much sense and after last year it looks like I was right. He had an OBP beneath .300 last year which is abysmal. He does have some speed. He had 33 SB out of 39 attempts which is pretty good. On the other hand though, it really doesn't make to much of a difference. His defense is really no better than average to. Now Boston's on the hook for 3 more years of him. He needs to turn things around to make his contract worthwhile.

Conclusion- Yankees- I don't think anyone is going to argue with me on this one. While Jeter is overrated and a liability on defense his offense is just to good for Lugo to even be comparable to him.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- Second Base

Second Base


Yankees- Robinson Cano- Cano came up in 2005 to replace the pathetic Tony Womack and his success was key to convincing the Yankees to rebuild the farm system. Since coming up he has become one of the best second baseman in the game. He got a 4 year extension this year, an extremely rare move for the Yankees to make with a young player with a few more years of arbitration left. Cano's biggest problem is his plate discipline. He`s constantly swinging at balls out of the strike-zone. If he can solve this problem then theirs no limit to what he can be. His defense also made leaps and bounds last year. Baseball Prospectus has him saving 26 runs more than the average 2nd baseman (This would translate to about 3 wins) but anyone who watched the games last year could have seen that. Although at times he seemed to lose focus and make stupid mistake as has happened in the past he displayed great range all year. All in all he`s a great young player and the Yankees were smart to lock him up.



Red Sox- Dustin Pedroia- Pedroia got his first chance in the ML's in 2006 and bombed in the 20 or so games he played. Last year, he came up early in the season to play second. Although he intially did not do well and earned a lot of bad puns about him being worse than Cano from Yankees fans. He turned his season around though and posted a BA/OBP/SLG% of .317/.380/.442. He`s a year younger than Cano as well. Pedroia is going to be a great player and the Red Sox won't be having any problems at second base for a while. His defense is also solid and above average.

Conclusion- Yankees- This is the closest one yet and its a very tough call. Pedroia had the better offensive numbers last year but Cano has the better defense and is a little more proven. In the end I just decided that Cano is likely to improve while Pedroia might fall off a little. Maybe its just my bias but I`m leaning towards Cano.

2008 Red Sox-Yankees Comparison- First Base

In total I am planning 15 installments of this series. One for each starting position player, one for each member of the pitching rotation, one for the bullpen, and one for the bench. I`m trying to be as impartial as I can but I don't know Boston as well as the Yankees. I anyone has any errors to point out please do so.

First Base


Yankees- Wilson Betemit/Shelley Duncan/Jason Giambi/Jason Lane/Morgan Ensberg/Juan Miranda- This is a wide open field for the Yankees. The past offseason the Yankees decided to get a monopoly on potential first baseman with big righty/lefty splits. First of all, lets eliminate Jason Lane who probably has little to no chance of making the team. Now, the Yankees will likely go with a plattoon. Shelley Duncan or Morgan Ensbergy will be the one on the right-handed half and the left-handed half would be either Betemit or Miranda. Lets be honest about Shelley for a minute. Even though every time Shelley Duncan blinks a new day begins he takes huge cuts and their are some holes in his swing. What he did last year was probably just a fluke. Although he might do well intially he`s probably not going to succeed for a full season. On the other hand, if Ensberg can regain some of what he was a few years ago he could be huge for the Yankees. Juan Miranda was a beast against lefties in his first season of baseball in America. I like him a lot but he might have to spend some more time in the minors. Betemit was traded for Scott Proctor last year at the deadline and at that point I liked the deal. Whoever emerges in Spring Training will get the job and its all guessing right now. If nobody does though, Giambi could get the job and they`ll just deal with his bad defense. Their are reports he showed up to camp in great shape which is a good sign. Again, we`ll just have to wait and see.

Red Sox- Kevin Youkilis- The first base situation for the Red Sox is a lot more clear than the Yankees. Youkillis is the kind of player you would love to have on your team but hate when he`s on the other team. He has great plate discipline and will work up the opposing pitcher's pitch count. He`s unbelievably frustrating because he will never swing at a bad pitch. This gave him a .390 OBP. He`s also a very good fielder though it doesn't mean much at first base. He`s cheap to.

Conclusion- Red Sox- Youkillis is a very good player and the Yankees can only hope they have production anywhere near what he will do. The only way they will match Youkillis is if Giambi plays first and he returns to his old self in a contract year.

2008 Red Sox/Yankees Comparison- Catcher

In the following week I will do a series of comparisons of the 2008 Yankees and Red Sox position by position. I will do the bench with the position they are back up and the bullpen as one entity but the others will be seperate. So here`s the first one.



Catcher



Yankees- Jorge Posada/Jose Molina- Posada is an interesting case. At a time when most catchers hit a steep decline he had an MVP type season. Not only that but the year before was also arguably his second best season. This earned him a 4 year deal this off-season at 13 million a year. For an ordinary catcher a sharp decline would be expected to come but Posada has spent less time behind the plate then most. As has been noted before he started his career as a second baseman and for a while split time with Joe Girardi. For next year he certainly won't repeat his 2007 but 2006 would probably be reasonable. He doesn't have the strongest arm and all in all isn`t a great catcher. I consider Posada to be the best catcher in baseball right now and retaining him was a must although we might be regretting it in 2012. Jose Molina was traded for mid-season last year and was an excellent backup. His top knotch defense was expected but nobody could have dreamed of him hitting as well as he did. He likely won't repeat this but earned an extension and will still be a very good backup.



Red Sox- Jason Varitek/Doug Mirabelli- Varitek is the Red Sox captain and will always be beloved in Boston for his grand slam in Game 7 of the 2004 World Series. However, their can be no doubt he is in decline. He`s still a good defensive catcher but won't be winning any gold gloves. His offense has also taken a dip. His BA/OBP/SLG% was .255/.367/.421 compared to a career line of .267/.350/.447. Although his OBP increased his more important SLG% has fallen. He`s still a good catcher and a key member of the team but he`s not what he used to. Doug Mirabelli is essentially on the team for Tim Wakefield. When they traded Josh Bard and Cla Meredith for Mirabelli I thought it was a mistake and I still do. His line of .202/.278/.360 was just plain pitiful (although he always does well when I watch). He`s essentially there as the personal catcher for their 4th or 5th starter which is a bad idea.

Conclusion- Yankees- Jorge Posada/Doug Mirabelli- Although Varitek is a good player and team leader he is brought down slightly by having Doug Mirabelli playing every 5 days and I consider Posada to be the best catcher in baseball. Jose Molina also gives Posada a little bump.

Hope, you enjoyed this. I tried to be impartial but if you have any problems please post in the comments. :)

Pitchers and Catchers Report (Except Andy)

Ahhh, not long now and we`ll be watching real games. Andy`s going to report on Monday, a few days late. I have no idea why ;)

Things to Watch for in Spring Training

Pitchers and catchers report in a matter of days so I thought now would be a good time to write up a preview on Spring Training. Here`s a list of things to watch for this spring:

• Who will emerge as the first Baseman?

The Yanks brought in a lot of different candidates to see who can fill what will be the biggest hole in their lineup. Last year Josh Phelps had a monster spring with Andy Phillips missing most of it. Despite all expectations before spring Phelps got the job. Look for something similar this year. The Yanks brought in a lot of different candidates this year. Shelley Duncan, Morgan Ensberg, Wilson Betemit, Juan Miranda, and Jason Lane are all competing for the first base job. Pretty much all of these have pretty slanted righty/lefty splits so a plattoon is a strong possibility. I think Juan Miranda is the best of these and will be plattooned with Shelley Duncan. You have to wonder how long Shelley can survive with that swing of his he`s going to strike out a lot. I think he`ll start off well but by mid-season they`ll have to replace him. They also might just decide to go with Giambi at first and sacrifice the first base defense.

• What will Joba do?

Early indicators are that he`ll start the season in the bullpen to limit his innings and I agree with this idea. However, the long-term plan, even for this year, is for him to start. He`s also going to be preparing as a starter so maybe he`ll get a chance to show the majority of Yankees fans what he can do as a starter. I still believe he is best off as a starter long term and for now the Yankees agree with me. Sure, he could be the succesor for Mariano but he could also be their own Justin Verlander. Obviously, these are the two absolute best case scenarios but the point is a starter is more valuable than a reliever. Joba isn't the successor to Rivera or the 8th inning bridge to Rivera.

• Who will be the 8th inning bridge to Mariano?

The enternal question of Yankees fans. You`ve all heard it. We miss Tom Gordon more than we though we would, we haven't had a reliable setup man since the late '90's, etc. No doubt, they`re going to have trouble getting the bal to Rivera. For part of the season at least they should have Joba but as I said before he won't be there the whole season. Joe Girardi essentially needs to play the hot hand which is a difficult and risky job. Latroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth willprobably be the chief competitors for this spot though anybody could really take the job. Brian Bruney could be a sleeper for this if he can get his control together he could be a devestatating force. Maybe the new coaching staff can do something for him. Jonathan Albaladejo also was a quiet pick-up that could do very well.

• How will the rest of the bullpen shape up?

Assuming that they will go with 12 pitchers and a 7 man bullpen I only see Rivera, Farnsworth (as frustrating as he is he`s still better than anything else they have), and Hawkins as having guarenteed spots to start the season. Although, Farnsworth and Hawkins could lose their jobs mid-season. Also, Joba will probably start the season in the bullpen. That leaves 3 more spots. Sean Henn is really their only option for a lefty specialist and he`s not exactly a very good one. If he has a good spring though he might get the job since they probably would like to have one. Chris Britton was acquired last year for Jaret Wright and many Yankees fans campaigned for him to be called up. Although he struggled during the brief time he was up he wasn't given much of a chance. Same deal with Edwar Ramirez. He was very erratic with moments where he showed his awesome change up. His big problem was his control which was excellent in the minors which is strange and since he was used so strangely (he once went over a week without pitching) that may be excusable. Jonathan Albaladejo was traded for this season for Tyler Clippard. He was unhittable in Washington but didn't go the whole season. Brian Bruney has a Farnsworth-esque fastball but unfortunately his control is also comparable to Farnsworth. Maybe the new coaching staff can straighten that out. Ross Ohlendorg was acquired for Randy Johnson along with Alberto Gonzalez and Steven Jackson last winter. He was converted from starter to reliever and now has a mid 90's sinker ball which dominated AAA. Veras and Karstens seem to have been "Torre guys" and I doubt they`ll make the team.

• How will Mike Mussinca do?

Remeber last spring when Mussina called out Pavano? He was proven right but the irony is that Mussina had an awful 2007. However, he could be a key to the Yankees in 2008. His periphereals were better than his ERA indicating part of his failure was due to luck. He also supposedly took on a more rigorous workout regime this winter which could help him get a few more miles on his fastball and that much needed seperation between his changeup and his fastball. Early on it`ll be tough to tell but towards the end of March if the Moose is throwing 87, 88 mph then that`s a sign he`s back and could be a valuable innings that they need to make sure they don't push the Big Three to hard. If he`s throwing 83, 84, 85 he very well might be finished although I`d give him another month or two.

Well, their`s your 5 things to watch in Spring Training. If you have anything I forgot just mention it in the comment section. :)