Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The offense loses the best third baseman in history having the best season a third baseman's ever had and most of the rest of the offense is on the wrong side of 30 and will be declining. Sorry optimistic Yankees fans, but losing A-Rod IS a crippling blow.
If I where the Yankees GM I`d pick up Abreu's option and trade him. He`s 34 and has an option for 16 million per year which is to much. Plus their are rumors about him being in the coming Mitchell Report. Pick up some of his contract and maybe you can put him in a package for something decent.
Damon also has a big contract, is aging, and had an off-year last year. He can't run as well anymore and that's a big part of his value. He`s losing things pretty fast and while he could bounce back its not worth the risk of hanging on to him for another 3 years. Same deal with Abreu. Send him and Abreu to another team and maybe you can get a solid young third or first baseman.
Though many are calling for Giambi to be traded I think that its to late. We won't get anything for him at all and his contract is almost done. A 22 million dollar contract plus another 5 million dollar buyout for Giambi is the definition of untradeable. I don't think he`ll do anything but if we get rid of him we get nothing in return and pay most of his contract anyway. If they hang onto him and have him DH then their`s a chance he`ll be the slugging but streaky Giambi we say in 2006 and 2005 and provide the Yankees with the feared home run hitter they`re missing with A-Rod. They have nothing to gain by trading him and might get something out keeping him for just one more year.
I`d listen to offers about Kyle Farnsworth but not trade be searching to dump him on somebody. He`s got great stuff and with another pitching coach and manager maybe he could be helped. We have nothing to gain from trading him and they can keep him around for one more year. If somebody wants him then fine but don't give him away to save money. He`s just around for one more year.
I`d like to trade Damon in a package for Santana I will elaborate on in my post about the starting pitching.
I`d like to trade Abreu. It won't happen but I`d still like to see it happen. Kelly Johnson of the Braves would be perfect to push Cano to third. The Braves could use a good hitter like Abreu and plus it would annoy the Mets. Abreu+Whelan+Clippard+Money for Johnson?
Right-field we should just look within for next year. See what Duncan and Garnder can do. Maybe Austin Jackson can more fast and do something in the majors.
1) Derek Jeter (SS)
2) Kelly Johnson (2B)
3) Hideki Matsui (LF)
4) Jorge Posada (C)
5) Robinson Cano (2B)
6) Jason Giambi (DH)
7) Melky Cabrera (CF)
8) Bret Gardner/Shelley Duncan/Austin Jackson
9) Wilson Betemit/Andy Phillips/Shelley Duncan
This offense will be a lot worse than last year's it won't lead the league and could be just about average but we're rebuilding and starting over. This offense can hold us over for the rich FA crop of 2008-2009 and give top prospects like Tabata, Montero, and Jackson another year to get ready. 2009 will be another great offensive year and Hughes and Chamberlain will have already seen the ML's for a full year.
Coming Next, the Starting Pitching
Monday, October 29, 2007
You know you had to learn
The execution of your mind
You really had to turn
The race is run the book is read
The end begins to show
The truth is out, the lies are old
But you dont want to know
Nobody will ever let you know
When you ask the reasons why
They just tell you that youre on your own
Fill your head all full of lies
The people who have crippled you
You want to see them burn
The gates of life have closed on you
And now theres just no return
Youre wishing that the hands of doom
Could take your mind away
And you dont care if you dont see again
The light of dayNobody will ever let you know
When you ask the reasons why
They just tell you that youre on your own
Fill your head all full of lies
Where can you run to
What more can you do
No more tomorrow
Life is killing you
Dreams turn to nightmares
Heaven turns to hell
Burned out confusion
Nothing more to tell
Everything around you
Whats it coming to
God knows as your dog knows
Bog blast all of you
Sabbath bloody sabbath
Nothing more to do
Living just for dying
Dying just for you
Ozzy Osbourne describes the feeling of Yankees fans today. Personally I think this gives the Yankees the perfect chance to blow up the team and start completely over from scratch. Wait it out and see what other offers A-Rod gets and if Boras calls with a good deal take it but don't get into a bidding war. Move Cano to third and trade for a young 2B`man. Let Betemit, Phillips, and Duncan split time at first. Trade Giambi, Abreu, Damon, and Farnsworth. Don't be afraid to let Posada go but bring Rivera back for sure. Let Girardi work his magic with the young players. I`d still love to see A-Rod come back and I can sympathize with his decision but I`m sick of seeing teams just good enough to get in the playoffs but never good enough to win the whole thing.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Friday, October 26, 2007
I will be glad when they have made the announcement and can start working on retaining the free agents as well as negotiate with Alex Rodriguez.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Monday, October 22, 2007
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Friday, October 19, 2007
I am not sure that I know how I feel about Joe Torre not coming back next year. I don't think that the Yankees front office treated him like they should have, however, this does give the Yankees a chance to start fresh with all the young guys coming up now. It reminds me a lot of when Pettitte, Posada, and Rivera made there way up as Torre came along. For Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Shelley Duncan there first complete year in the majors will be with a new skipper.
Anyway, as Yankees fan I think we all have to thank Joe Torre for the excellent job he did over 12 seasons. He made the playoffs every year, won 6 League Championships and 4 World Championships. The two years that the Yankees lost in the World Series, the series ran 7 games in 2001 and 6 games in 2003. Every Yankees team he coached had a different story, from the dominance in 1998 to the huge comeback from 14 games back in 2007. For me, I have had all kinds of fun during the Joe Torre era. I don't know how it would have been under a different manager, but I am thankful Torre was around over those years.
I hope the next manager can step in and get us back to the place the Yankees belong, the WORLD SERIES!!!
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
RCA= (Average Pitcher's Runs Surrendered/9)+(Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average)/(Expected Outs Pitched/3)
Pitcher's Runs Surrendered/9 is what is commonly known as RA (Run Average). It is like ERA but counts unearned runs.
Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average (ERSAA) and Expected Outs Pitched (EOP) are statistics I invented. They are based on the GB/FB/IFFB/LD/SO/BB/HBP a pitcher has and the run value and percentage of the time they are outs of each one. The numbers these different types of events are multiplied are the run values of them (That is for ERSAA) and percentage of the time these types of event are converted into outs.
ERSAA= (SO* -.287)+(IFFB*-.243)+(GB* -.101)+(FB*0.035)+(LD*0.356)+(BB*0.315)+(HBP*0.342)
EOP= (SO*1.00)+(BB*0.00)+(HBP*0.00)+(GB*.772)+(LD*.1 88)+(FB*.812)+(IFFB*.962)
EOP is then divided by three to convert them into Innings Pitched.
Here is an example. John Smith has these statistics one year.
Average RA- 4.80
John Smith's RCA = 4.80+(-37.92/(596.06/3) = 4.61
Why do I use this instead of other pitching statistics?
We all know the flaws of conventional statistics such as ERA, Wins, and Losses but DIPS statistics are also flawed. Studies have suggested that pitchers cannot control their HR/FB% as much as is sometimes assumed. As a result HR's are not an accurate measure of a player's ability to prevent HR's. I prefer GB% or GB's. It also includes the exact values of these different events. K/BB is a statistic I use a lot but it does not account for the fact that a player with a 200/50 SO/BB ratio in 200 IP is better than a pitcher that has a 100/25 SO/BB ratio in 200 IP. One walk does not fully offset a strikeout. Using LD% also accounts for part of a pitcher's control in keeping a low BABIP. A big inspiration for my work here was a post on a Mariners blog I stumbled upon about evaluating pitchers.
If you have any comments or questions please post them in the comments section.
Meetings concluded at 4:00 on Tuesday and were to resume on Wednesday.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Next year, the Yankees could have the following starters: Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte (if he chooses to return), Mike Mussina, and Ian Kennedy. Humberto Sanchez is also a starter in the minors who will be returning from missing a season due to surgery. Rumor has it that the Yankees might make a deal for Johan Santana if Alex Rodriguez were to opt-out and free up some money for the Yankees to spend. I don't see a deal happening since the Yankees would have to give up a lot.
This year the Yankees were led at the plate by Justin Snyder who played in all but 2 regular season games. Snyder maintained a .335 batting average while driving in 40 runs. On the mound, the Yankees were led by Ryan Pope who started all 10 games in which he appeared. Pope had a 3-0 record with a 2.49 ERA. Jonathan Ortiz was a great closer for SI this summer. In 21 games, he was5-0 record with 13 saves while maintaining a 1.80 ERA.
The Yankees have a lot of good young prospects that we will be seeing rise up through the organization over the next few years. Hopefully Staten Island will continue putting out great young talent like have in the past with players such as Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, and Shelley Duncan.
Throughout the Joe Torre era the Yankees have been tortured by the Angels. However, the GM of the Angels is stepping down. He has always built teams that match up well against the Yankees and I`m not sorry to see him go.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Manager- Joe Torre
I`ve already explained my opinion on this one. Torre is respected by his players more than any other manager in the game is. He is a terrible tactician and is reluctant to make changes and try new things but overall he`s a good manager. Besides, those things can be helped by having a good bench coach.
Bench Coach- Joe Kerrigan
You probably think I`m cray after reading that but hear me out. Joe has managerial experience (very little and it was pretty bad) and might be more willing to speak out and suggest things to Torre. He knows his pitchers and will help Torre's bullpen mangement. Give Mattingly the AAA manager job or something like that so he can get some experience as a manager. Then when Torre's done Mattingly can have the manager job.
Hitting Coach- Kevin Long
I see nothing wrong with him here. He reportedly helped A-Rod a ton the past year and was called "the best kep secret in baseball." Despite the offenses collapse in the playoffs they were the best for the regular season. As far as I can tell he`s done a good job and I don't know who would replace him anyway.
Pitching Coach- Ron Guidry
I`m torn on this one between Leo Mazzone and Ron Guidry. If you ask me again in a hour I could easily say Mazzone. Mazzone was awesome for the Braves but after he left Smoltz, Maddux , and Glavine didn't really suffer a big dropoff. Last year the Orioles had terrible pitching as well outside of Eric Bedard. I think Mazzone is more of a product of his players than anything else. Supposedly Mazzone is also better with a veteran staff and its possible we could have three rookies, plus Wang in the rotation. All year we`ve heard stories about Guidry helping out, especially Wang with his slider which has helped him get a few more K's. Not to mention the PR aspect of firing a legend like Guidry who is generally considered the second best Yankees pitcher ever (though I disagree with that). I think we`re better off with Guidry but i won't be to upset if they sign Mazzone.
1B Coach- Tony Pena
Remember all the stories about him helping Posada two years ago? Well that definitely paid off. In 2006 he had an improved season and the last year he was unbelievable. The 1B coach doesn't really do much but supposedly he gets to the ballpark early every day and works with the players. I don't really know what else you want from him.
3B Coach- Larry Bowa
Maybe I`m wrong here but I don't really remember to many bad baserunning moves by the Yankees the past year. Bowa`s done a pretty good job and according to the reports, he works hard with the players to. He`s done a good job.
Bullpen Coach- Dave Eiland
When he came up this season to help Hughes he definitely helped a lot. Look at his performance before and after. He knows some of the young guys on the team like Kennedy, Joba, and Hughes. Not to mention Edwar, Ohlendorf, and anybody else who could be in the bullpen next year. If something is wrong with them he`ll spot it right away and help. Just the way he helped Hughes could make all the difference.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Girardi originally sounded like a great idea to me but the more I learn about him the less I like him. A few of his young pitchers in Flordia were hurt this year. I don't think I`d want to trust Joba and Phil to him.
Mattingly sounds like a Joe Torre clone only without commanding the same respect from the players. I don't see any reason to believe he`ll be a good manager.
Bobbt Valentine I`m sorry to say i know next to nothing about. From what I`ve heard from others he might be a good option.
Larry Bowa is the kind of guy that could lose his team early on after a bad start by going crazy. I love him but he`s not the kind of guy that I thinkc an handle being the manager of the Yankees.
Tony Pena is interesting but wouldn't command the same type of respect as Joe. He ahd nothing in Kansas City to work with and in his last year there he was struck by losing the only good players he had to injury or free agency.
Tony LaRussa is the only one who has as comparable resume to Joe's but his personality doesn't seem right for New York's many newspapers and I think he might lose his team. LaRussa's bullpen managemant also annoys me and the prospect of him bring in Ron Villone to face David Ortiz in the 8th inning of a tie game scares me.
None of the options sound great and if Torre comes back I think many of the player's will come back and in all honesty that's the most important part of the team, the players. Torre's flaws in handling a bullpen can be helped by a new bench coach. Who that coach is I`m not sure. I think Torre's gone and Mattingly will be the next manager but I`m not crazy about the idea. Even if he doesn't come back next year I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back in 2009 if the new manager has a bad season.
Monday, October 8, 2007
4-0 now. Not looking good
Tonight the Yankees send Chien-Ming Wang to the mound to try and send the series back to Cleveland. The Indians will counter with Paul Byrd.
More Minor League Reports coming after the Yankees season is complete.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
If this is true then this is mostly good new. Maybe this will fire up the team and make all this a non-issue. Its good to hear that George still has a pulse.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Friday, October 5, 2007
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B
Chien-Ming Wang RHP
Other position players
INF Wilson Betemit
1B Jason GiambiOF
1B Shelley Duncan
C Jose Molina
OF-3B Bronson Sardinha
Other starting pitchers
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Roger Clemens
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Mariano Rivera
RHP Joba Chamberlain
RHP Luis Vizcaino
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
RHP Ross Ohlendorf
RHP Jose Veras
I`m pretty happy with this. I would have liked to see Duncan against Sabathia but that's it.
Red Sox versus Angels
I`m going to go with Boston on this one. Josh Beckett has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, their offense is much better than the Angels especially with Guerrerro hurting, they still have an awesome back-end of the bullpen, and they just have more pitching than the Angels. They also have home-field adavntage. The Angels are a team that fits the playoff mold perfectly but the Red Sox just fit into it better. Red Sox in 4.
Yankees versus Indian
This is the big one. I`m sorry to say I don't think the Yanks have much of a chance. Sabbathia deserves the CYA this year and they haven't seen him in years, Carmona has also been excellent and could easily defeat Pettitte, and will the long layoff hurt or help Rocket? The Yankees have the much better position players and a much better bench but studies have shown that offense int he regular season doesn't correlate with offense in the post-season. Peopl can point to Joe Borowski as being the Indians closer and them having a weak back-end of the bullpen but you forget the two other guys they have with ERA's under 2.00. The Yankees can probably match them with Rivera and Joba and probably have a slightly better bullpen but the difference isn't really that big. Postseason experience is a non-factor and so is head to head matchups in the regular season. I see the Indians winning it but they do have a shot. Wang is the kind of guy that sometimes can deliver and unbelievable performance and on certain days can math Sabbathia. If he can win game one then Pettitte-Carmona could really go either way andI like our chances up 2-0 at home with Rocket pitching possibly the last game of his career. This could go either way but the Indians are my pick to win the WS. The Yankees could easily win though. Indians in 5.
I know very little about NL teams and won't embarass myself with a prediction for them
Monday, October 1, 2007
1) Phil Hughes
2) Joba Chamberlain
3) Ian Kennedy
4) Jose Tabata
5) Dellin Bettances
6) Carmen Angelini
7) Alan Horne
8) Austin Jackson
9) Ross Ohlendorf
10) Juan Miranda