Ken Rosenthal elaborates on what the Twins would need to give up Santana. A young star and a few prospects? The young star would probably have to be Cano or Wang and then the other prospects would have to be probably Melky Cabrera and either Horne, Tabata, or Jackson. Is Santana worth this?
Well Wang had WARP3's of about 8 both of the last two years. Compare this to Santana's WARP3 of 9 last year. This was an off year for him but the year before it was about 11 and the year before that about 10. Lets say his real value is 10 wins above replacement level per year. Wang the past two years has been worth around 8 wins above replacement level. That`s a difference of two wins. Is that worth two prospects? No, I don't think so.
If its Cano we're giving up instead it looks even worse. Every year, Cano has steadily improved. He was third in the league in BA in 2006 and he`ll be making another run for the BA title in a few years I`ll bet. His HR totals have steadily increased each year. His plate disciplince also improved last year going from 18 BB's to 39. Scouts have raved about his power potential and even Don Mattingly said he could hit 30 HR's one day if he wanted to. He`s gone from being a below average defensive second baseman last year to being one of the best in baseball. Once again, improving every year, oh and by the way, he`s still 24 years old. Remember all those Rod Carew comparisons before this year that went away early in the season? Yeah, they`re coming back.
Melky Cabrera wouldn't even be the centerpiece of this deal and look at his value. He`s improved every year he`s been in the league. His defense has blossomed into being one of the best center-fielders in the league. He needs to regain the plate disciplince he showed in 2006 but he`s developing very nicely and had a better season than Mike Gonzalez did.
So all in all lets think about this for a minute. Cano had a WARP3 of about 12, plus Melky's WARP3 of about 7, plus Alan Horne who some say is better than Kennedy for Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball but still only averages around a WARP3 of 10 and maxes out at about 11.
Or we can do Wang and his WARP3 of about 8, plus Melky, plus Jose Tabata who was a top 20 prospect in baseball last year for Santana.
That's not even taking into account the chemistry effect of Cano and Cabrera (A-Rod?) or the 130 million we`ll also have to give up for Santana's next contract. Its just to much. Santana's percieved value is just way to high. A bonafide ace would be nice but its just not worth it. Let Omar and the Mets sell the farm for him. Let them give up their star middle infielder and top prospects. We`ll be laughing when 35 year old Johan Santana gives up a HR to Jose Reyes or Fernando Martinez of the Twins in the World Series.