Saturday, November 24, 2007

What Next? Catcher

I wasn't really happy with what I did for the offense for this series of posts. So I`m going to redo it. Position by position.

For catcher Jorge Posada has been resigned for the next 4 years. He should be a productive player next year and one of the best in baseball but he`ll drop off. The general opinion around baseball is that he`s really an above average catcher but has never had a season like last year. He posted a .338/.426/.543/.337 line (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA) with a WARP3 of 10.0. The truth is that 2007 arguably wasn't even his best season. In 2000 he had a 10.4 WARP3 and in 2003 he had a 10.1 WARP3. Not only that but in just 2006 he had a 9.1 WARP3. While 2007 was a fantastic season its not the first time he`s ever had one like that. He also started his career as an infielder so has less years as a catcher in his career and less wear and tear than the average catcher at his age. Jose Molina will also be the backup catcher the whole year and we won't have to worry about having automatic out, Wil Nieves, playing when Posada gets days off. So he should be a little better rested this year. His former mentor, Joe Girardi, is also back with the team and who knows what type of influence that could have on him. He`ll decline but nothing catastrophic. At least not in the first year. Keep in mind this projection is just a ballpark figure made knowing generally how WARP3 is scaled but without knowing the actual formula for WARP3 or using an actual projection system.

2007 WARP 3- 10.0

Projected 2008 WARP3- 7.0

Win Change- -3.0

2 comments:

Yankee Fan for life said...

The question is whether you the fan are happy to watch the team compete — watch Jeter and ARod march to the age home with no World Series; or whether using the last 2 -3 years of the Jeter, Arod, Posada, Rivera nucleus we get to play in and Win a WS. Problem is not so much will the kids propser - they may but it is a crap shoot — the problem is the Yankees are getting old around them and the retooling is likley to be when the kids are great as opposed to the next 3 yrs when the are learning to be great - and maybe learning without a STAFF #1 ACE to lead them
– you have to sacrifice one of them to win over the next 3 years and set the stage for winning beyond then. Clearing paychecks off the books will happen - this year’s cost is not small but it is incidental to the strategy.

The Yankees with reasonale pitching should match last year’s performance or better it. As should the Red Sox. They are 1 and 2. They have to be better than the #2s in the central and west. They Yankess and the Red Sox split with each other but dominate a weak east, the central, west and NL. Same as 2007 (with better east performance by Yankees, and hopefully without the front line pitching injuries.

Getting to and winning a WS requires better short series pitchng than the Yankees have managed to field since 2001
– it appears to be the hardest thing to do in baseball.

Pettit, Clemens, Mussina, Wells, and whoever - were not eqaul to the D’Backs or Marlins. Mussina, Old Unit, Wang and whoever not equal to Red Sox, Angels or Tigers. Mussina, Pettit (close), Wang, Clemns not eqaul to Indians. On Paper all the names are great - have ben great, but came up short, A stike out, a hit, a ground rule double, a midge. (Having a tactical game manager make the available right moves would help)

As a GM you try to take some of the crap shoot and uncertainty out of the short series (and make the manager tactics indifferent). The loogy matchup, the stolen base, the defensive CF each can be critical - you try to put each piece in place. Remove the weakness that can beat you.

So faced with the hardest thing in baseball you have to get Santana if you can make the trade.

Absolutley you give up Cano and Horne. Cano will not deliver 10 wins above the avg 2B for the next 5 years. Melky - play Jackson and Gardner - they have nothing left to learn in the minors - either they are ready or they are not - Find out in the potent lineup. Ikeep Damon - he was good with Melky and wil be for the other kids. He is a better all-round ball player than Melky.

But Cano and Horne are not enough
– you have to give up Joba, Hughes or IPK
– is any a “nearly certain game 1and game 4 or 5 winner in a short series. Once you wrap your head around Horne, Cano and Melky, you give up IPK.
– but maybe if you give up Hughes you could keep Horne and give up Ramierez. A crap shoot. I TAKE IT - I am AFRAID Huges lost his plus fastball and without it he is nothing special — terrible to say but as a FAN I FEAR. As a GM right now I have pieces to trade, and more arms in the pipeline - So I take Santana. I have a seven “can’t miss” arms in the minors and NO ROOM for them — do I save them and trade for who next year the year after –

IPK or Hughes, Horne or Ramierez, Cabrerra and Cano — if you want to substitute Damon for Cabrera OK — I’d be happy to trade both and keep Cano - but I don’t think the Twins will deal unless Cano is in

– If I am Cashman I don’t deal -I put the package together and Twins have 24 hrs - deal or no deal - I am not shopping my palyers — it is business deal of a lifetime - and I want Santana negotiated and two minor league prospects -

Remember the inability to deal for Beltran — he catches the fly ball that Bubba and Sheffield botched and then we don’t take on Damon

Remember Sheffield - they passed on Vald Guererro — we get sapred Mr. Butthead Attitude and stil have a Hall of Fame RF

Remember Wright and Pavano — each was the Joba hughes of his day.

MAKE THE TRADE

Just giving Thanks that we have a team we are passionate about and that is in a posiiton to do great things

Mike NYY said...

It takes more than on eof these prospects though. With no more mvoes they should still match last years performance I agree.

Joba and Hughes right now can provide that short series pitching. Both can be at least decent pitchers this year and become greats.

What makes you think Cano won't do that for the next 5 years but Santana will do what he`s done for the next 5 years? A player's peak is his mid to high 20's. Cano is getting closer to that while Santana is getting farther away from that.

Gardner just plain isn't as good as Melky and Jackson has one good minor league year under his belt. He has a lot more to learn and isn't ready. Haven't we learned the cost of rushing prospects with Eric Duncan and others?

Is Damon better? I don't know. Especially considering contract.

None of them are nearly certain winners but they`re still young. Give them a few years and they might. Right now they`re at least decent and IMO as good or better than Wang or Petitte.

Hughes has not lost his fastball. He was using an abbreviated motion after his injury. He`ll fix that and come back better than ever from the experience. Down the stretch he partially fixed it and we saw the results.

Hughes and Joba are the only "can't miss" arms we have. Kennedy, Horne, and Bettances are on a tier below that. Its not that they don't have enough room for them at all.

Remember Javy Vazquez? Remember Randy Johnson? Remember Barry Zito? Sometimes the best deal you make are the ones you don't