Pitching Statistic

A while ago I wrote about a stat I created called Runs Created Average (RCA). Looking back the post I made was pretty rambling and I`ve tinkered with it since then. Judging by the poll I made about it a lot of you weren't reading this blog then either.

It has been shown that ERA, WHIP, hits, and other traditional pitching statistics are poor indicators of a pitcher's true skill and poor predictors of pitchers future performance. This is because hits heavily affect these stats and hits are largely determined by the defense and the luck of the placement of batted balls. The writer of that article, Voros McCracken, then proceded to figure out what stats were not affected by defense or the luck of the batted ball. He decided to use SO's, BB"s, and HR's to create a new stat called DIPS ERA.

When I first read about this in Baseball Between the Numbers. It showed how consistent several statistics wehere and compared to the others stats used in DIPS, SO's and BB's, HR's where very low. Later I also learned about another theory that pitchers can't control their HR/FB% (meaning that pitchers can control whether a ball is a FB or a GB but not what that GB or FB ends up being, the HR/FB% theory is not universally accepted).

I thought it would make more sense to use batted ball types (GB's, FB's, LD's, and IFFB's) instead of HR's. So after looking around a little I found the percentage of the time the different batted ball types and the run values for BB's, SO's, and HBP's were outs.

Here is the percentage of the time each of these events were outs:

SO= 100%

BB= 0%

HBP= 0%

GB= 77.2%

FB= 81.2%

IFFB= 96.2%

LD= 18.8%


This can be used to find out how many outs the pitcher should have gotten. You convert these to decimals and multiply it by the amount of times the appropriate event happened. This will get you the amount of outs that should have happened on each event. Add these up and you`ll get the total amount of outs the pitcher should have gotten.

Here's the fomula for Expected Outs Pitched:

EOP= (SO*1.00)+(BB*0.00)+(HBP*0.00)+(GB*.772)+(LD*.1 88)+(FB*.812)+(IFFB*.962)

You then divide this by three to convert it to Expected Innings Pitched

EIP= EOP/3

Next you have to figure out how many runs should have been given up and to do this you need to figure out the run value of each event. These were determined using play by play data to find how many runs a team would be expected to score before one of these events happened and after. The value of the event is how much the amount of runs expected to be scored is changed by on average.

Here is how many runs each event adds to the average situation:

SO= --0.287 runs
BB= 0.315 runs
HBP= 0.342 runs
GB= --0.101 run
FB= 0.035 runs
IFFB= --0.243 runs
LD= 0.356 runs

You can use this to figure out how many runs a pitcher should have given up above average by multiplying each event's value by the amount of times that event happened with that pitcher pitching. You then add them all up. I call this Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average.

Here's the formula with the values of each event put it:

ERSAA= (SO* -.287)+(IFFB*-.243)+(GB* -.101)+(FB*0.035)+(LD*0.356)+(BB*0.315)+(HBP*0.342)

This doesn't give you the the actual number of runs the pitcher should have given up though. You need to add the ERSAA to the number of runs the average pitcher would give up in as many innings as the pitcher who`s RCA you are figuring out. So next you multiply the Expected Innings Pitched by the Average Runs Scored per game and add the Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average. This gets you Expected Runs Surrendered.

ERS= (EIP*ARS)+ERSAA

Now finally you can figure out Runs Created Average by using what is essentially the formula for ERA.

RCA= (ERS/EIP)*9


As an example I`ll compare the Yankees and Red Sox's projected starting rotations for 2008. Unfortunately, I don't know of a site that tracks batted ball data for minor leaguers and I don't want to use Joba's stats in the bullpen so Clay Bucholz, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain won't be used. The Yankees only have 4 of their pitchers that I can find their RCA's for so I`ll just compare the top four (according to each official website) for both teams. Keep in mind that 4.50 is average.


Yankees:


1) Chien Ming Wang- 184 Expected Innings, 90 Expected Runs, 4.34 RCA

2) Andy Pettite- 209 Expected Innings, 103 Expected Runs, 4.43 RCA

3) Phil Hughes- 72 Expected Innings, 35 Expected Runs, 4.38 RCA

4) Mike Mussina- 149 Expected Innings, 80.5 Expected Runs, 4.86



Team- 614 Expected Innings, 308.5 Expected Runs, 4.52 RCA


Red Sox:

1) Josh Beckett-207 Expected Innings, 68 Expected Runs, 2.96 RCA

2) Curt Schilling- 154 Expected Innings, 73 Expected Runs, 4.27 RCA

3) Daisuke Matsuzaka- 206 Expected Innings, 92 Expected Runs, 4.02 RCA

4) Tim Wakefield- 187 Expected Innings, 94 Expected Runs, 4.52 RCA



Team- 754 Expected Innings, 327 Expected Runs, 3.90 RCA


This obviously shows that the Yankees have basically an average rotation while the Red Sox have a very good one. In fact, its not even close. However, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Clay Bucholz, and Jon Lester all either don't make the cut for the four man rotatuion or have not enough experience as a starter in the majors and will likely be important players which might help the Yankees a bit but not enough.

Thanks for reading all this. I`d love some feedback on it :)

Canseo's book out by Opening Day

The broke, desperate, attention seek- I mean the award winning author, Jose Canseco, is coming out with another book by opening day. Why didn't he write all this stuff in the first one?

Leyritz Arrested

This morning Jim Leyritz was arrested for DUI. He hit a woman and killed her. Driving while drunk is possibly the stupudist thing you could ever do. Now he`s got 15 years in jail to wonder why he didn't hire a cab.

Cano out of Winter Ball

Cano was told by the Yankees to stop playing winter ball. He said it was to help a calf injury heal.

What Next? Right Field

At the 2006 trade deadline Brian Cashman managed to pull of a trade of Matt Smith and C. J. Henry for Bobby Abreu from the Phillies. The Phillies didn't want to pay him and thought he was in steep decline and got a reliever who had done great in his rookie year in Matt Smith and a former first round pick in C. J. Henry. Since then Henry was released by teh Phillies the past year and resigned by the Yankees and Smith had an 11.25 ERA last year after intially doing well. Abreu was an on base machine in the second half of 2006 and although he struggled at the beginning of 2007 he turned his season around and played well enough to convince the Yankees to pick up his one year 16 million dollar option for 2008.

I would have preferred to see the Yankees pick up his option and then trade him like they did with Sheffield but he shoudl be able to play right-field solidly. Hopefully, he won't get off to the terrible start he had in 2007. His final line was .289/.369/.445/.294 (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA) but his fear of the walls on defense is annoying. Its gotten so bad that even his great arm can't make up for it.

I don't see him doing much better or worse than last year but I think he might improve a little just because he won't repeat that terrible first half. He`s probably overpaid but not nearly as much as Tori Hunter or any of the other free agent outfielders. He`s flawed but in the end he`ll get the job done.

2007 WARP3- 7.3

Projected 2008 WARP3- 8.0

Wins Gained- .7

Twins back down

According to Murray Chass the Twins have lowered their demands for the third player in a Santana trade to the Yankees. Instead of Ian Kennedy they now want Jeff Marquez. Hopefully, this will be resolved soon. THis is a tough call for the Yankees but Hughes, Cabrera, and Marquez is fairly reasonable for Santana even considering the contract extension

Its official, Craig Biggio is the Grittiest Player of All-time

http://www.flotsam-media.com/2007/12/flotsam-data-special-tangiblizing.html

Brilliant, just brilliant

Joba to start season in Bullpen

I really hope the Yankees are telling the truth in that its only temporary. People may say Joba is the perfect closer with his 98 mph fastball and insane slider. However, he has several other good pitches. As soon as somebody falters JOba better be switched back. That`s all I can say.

Grimsley Affidavit Out

The controversial Jason Grimsley affidavit will be unsealed soon and it doesn't sound like Clemens or Pettitte's names are in it. I`m really getting sick of this steroid stuff.

Congratulations to the Royals

for getting mediocore at best lefty Ron Mahay for the next two years at 9 million per year. I`m a little late on this. I`ve been very busy lately and nothing`s really happened that`s caused me to jump to my keyboard.

Pettitte Admission

Andy Pettitte admitted to trying HGH in 2002 while on the DL earlier today. I`m dissapointed but he said it was only for 2 days and he quit and I`m inclined to believe him. The more I think about it the more I think Clemens did it to. And I doubt he did it for just two days.

Who knows, and at this point, who cares?

Steroids

I`ve thought about the Mitchell report for a bit now and I really think its lacking in evidence in many areas. I can't blame Mitchell for this and I think it was right for us to have it open to the public. However, the media has really taken things and put them out of context. Headlines like "Pettitte, Clemens in Mitchell report" or pictures of every one of the player's who's names were mentioned on the back page of a certain Long Island newspaper looks good. However, its not that accurate.

Its not a double standard I`m putting with Bonds and Clemens. I`m not a racist. The fact is they wrote an entire book about Bonds' steroid use and all they have to go for Clemens is the word of a criminal. Pettitte, same deal, and even if they`re being honest he used them for less than one year. The fact is they`re is very little evidence to back the claim that Pettitte and Clemens used steroids up.

Jose Canseco said he was surprised that A-Rod wasn't in the report. I say shut up and go away. If you think A-Rod used steroids just say so and tell us why. Don't drop these annoying hints and then don't back them up.

Clemens Denial

Shocking but Clemens denies using steroids. Doesn't really mean anything. Just thought I`d mention it.

Mitchell Reprt

As I`m reading more an interesting fac is Kirk Radomski was supposedly a major course. He did this to shorten a prison sentence and now runs a car wash. How reliable can he really be?

More thoughts will come later after the Selig Conference, I`m still trying to get caught up.

Mitchell Report

Among the players named in the Mitchell Report it included Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. I`d like to hear a bit more about it personally. I`m not quite sure how reliable it is. A trainer admitted to injecting them but, again. I`m not so sure about it. I`d like to hear what Andy and Roger have to say. Mitchell is also not exactly unbiased

Non-Tenders

TJ Beam, Matt DeSalvo, and Darell Rasner have all been non-tendered. I feel bad for Rasner. He`s pitched very well in his time in the majors and would be useful insurance. I really hope some team gives him a shot. Mark Prior has also been non-tendered. I know he`s constantly injured but the Yankees could get lucky with him. He might be worth a shot.

Big News Day

After a few days of nothing a lot has happened today.

• Fukudome was signed by the Cubs for 4 years and 48 million dollars. Obviously that puts an end to my idea of trading Matsui and having him fill Matsui's role. That's a pretty solid deal for the Cubs and he should help them a lot.
• Aaron Rowand has been signed by the Giants for a five year deal but for somew weird reason the Giants don't give out money amounts. Odds are they overpaid. Rowand had a career year at just the right time. He`s only had one other season like last years and he`s getting older. He`s injury prone and I`m happy the Yankees won't be wasting any money on him.
• How does the Rowand deal affect a potential Matsui trade? The Giants still need a left-fielder and even Brian Sabean isn't deluded enough to think Aaron Rowand can replace Barry Bonds.
• Miguel Tejada was traded to the Astros for five players. Great, he always killed the Yankees and I`m glad to see him go.
• Wang also wants a long-term contract extension.

Well that's it for now. The free agent market is now barren and with Santana seemingly staying put for the moment the hot stove league has cooled down.

LaTroy "bleeping" Hawkins

Ona forum I visit that`s how one Orioles fan referred to Latroy Hawkins when he was with the Orioles. Well, now the Yankees have signed him to a one year, 3.75 million dollar deal. I guess its an okay signing but nothing to get excited about. An odd note is that his GB% went from a mediocore 40% or so every year of his career to an excellent 60% last year.

Crazy Idea

What if the Yankees went ahead on the Matsui for Lincecum trade, lets say Matsui, Kennedy, Horne, and cash, moved Damon to first, and then signed Kosuke Fukudome? That solves the first base hole and adds insurance if Giambi collapses. It won't happen but its something to think about.

Pettitte in, Sardinha out

Petitte was officially added to the 40 man roster yesterday so Bronson Sardinha was DFA'ed. Remember the walk-off he had in Spring Training last year? He`s no loss though.

Erik Bedard

The Yankees and Red Sox have made the two best offers for Erik Bedard. I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox were just doing this to pressure the Twins into accepting a Santana trade but I`m interested by this rumour. I`d say Hughes is out of the question but I could see a deal built around Kennedy and I`d love that. As I`ve said many times I`d rather have Bedard than Santana.

Little Things

A few bits of new and notes today but n0othing major

• Vizcaino is done with the Yankees. Supposedly they`re showing no interest in him at all. Fine with me. They offered arbitration so if any other team signs him the Yankees will get a draft pick. He was mediocore last year with good stretches and terrible stretches. He`s no big loss.
• The Mitchell Report could come out by Thursday. Chance of any big Red Sox players being on the list, 0%.
• Andy could pitch in 2009. Lets wait and see how he does in 2008 first.
• The Shelley Duncan blood clot was a serious thing.However, he`s recovered now. Thank god.
• The Yankees are rumoured to be interested in Kazuo Fukumori. I don't get it looking at his age and his numbers.

Godzilla to Giants?

An interesting rumor is Mastui to the Giants for Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. Matsui is an all-star and a very good player but a big part of his value is how he opens up the Japanese market. If Matsui is traded could signing Fukudome be next? I think Fukudome could replace Matsui very well. Cain and Lincecum are both studs as well. Especially Lincecum. Matsui has a no trade clause so obviously this could be nothing.

Catch Up

I didn't manage to get on a computer yesterday so I have to do some catching up.

First of all the Twins offered Santana for Hughes, Melky, Hilligross, and Marquez. I`m shocked Cash turned that one down but I think he made the right move. Hughes is an above average pitcher right now in my opinion and should only get better. He has electric stuff, pinpoint control, and his injuries have no sign of reoccuring. Melky is an above average center fielder at age 23. I don't understand the people who say he`ll never get any better. If nothing else this shows that Cashman has not lost any power at all in the organization. Or this could just be a false report.

Second, one reason the deal was not done according to Bill Madden was the Yankees payroll. Their is a limit to what they can spend. As a free agent Santana would be worth that but also giving up all the prospects? Its not worth it.

Third, we`ve gone from hearing that Santana very well may not move at all to hearing their are teams other than the Red Sox in the mix. If Santana stays with the Twins he`ll probably leave in the off-season and with the Yankees losing a few bad/big contracts next year (Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, Abreu, and Farnsworth). All of these guys should be replaced with cheap players. If Santana goes to a team other than Boston that's even better.

Here's the Boston and New York rotation with no trades. That`s pretty close and the Yankees might have the upper hand if Hughes has a good year.

1) Wang-----------------1) Beckett
2) Pettitte---------------2) Schilling
3) Hughes---------------3) Matsuzaka
4) Chamberlain--------4) Wakefield
5) Mussina/Kennedy---5) Lester/Bucholz

No Santana, No Haren

Last night Hank said the Yankees were out on Haren and Santana. If Beane really wasn't going to lower his asking price then okay. Bedard probably won't be traded in division so I guess they`ll start the season with Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy which isn't necesarily a terrible thing.

No 6 Man Rotation

Joe Girardi said earlier that the Yankees will not be going with a six man rotation next year. I just hope this doesn't mean Joba's heading to the bullpen. If not then its pretty smart. Pitcher's are pampered enough.

Santana Deal Dead, Cabrera+Willis to Tigers

It looks like Santana to the Yankees is all but dead. Thank god. I`m half-hoping he really does go to the Red Sox instead of the Angels.

In other news the Marlins and Tigers have managed to pull off a blockbuster with the Tigers getting Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera for Camron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Dallas Trahern. Miller and Maybin are huge prospects and their are a couple other decent ones in there. Willis didn't look good at all last year or really the year before. However, Cabrera is a beast. They`re going to have a murderous lineup next year. I think the Tigers may have overpayed a bit.

Santana to Angels?

The Angels have jumped into the mix for Santana offering Brandon Wood and Jered Weaver. Maybe they`ll drive the bidding up.

Update

We`ve heard a few more reports suggesting Santana to the Red Sox and the Yankees focusing on Dan Haren. I think this is great news. The prospects Boston is giving up are not scrubs. They`re really very good and at critical positions for the Red Sox. A lot of Boston fans have hoped that Lowrie could come up and take Lugo's job. Masterson is a good pitching prospect. Ellsbury and Lester could both be future all stars. Haren won't cost as much as Santana no matter how cheap he is in terms of money.

Santana Deadline Comes and Goes

The deadline for a Santana deal came and went and Santana is still a Twin. ESPNews just said they`re still talking but Jon Heyman has said they are ending trade talks. The Twins have backed off Kennedy but they are still disagreeing on the third player. I still believe they could have Dan Haren or Eric Bedard without giving up Hughes and should pursue them instead. How dumb can the Twins be? Why don't they just take Melky, Hughes, and Gonzalez? They really don't need another prospect and the Yankees have a better offer than Boston. If they`d rather take Taco boy, an Alan Horne esque pitching prospect, and Lowrie instead of the best pitching prospect in baseball and a ML ready center fielder who's 23 fine with me.

Clippard Trade

Last night Tyler Clippard was trade for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo. I don't know to much about him but he had great stats in the major and minor leagues. He should help shore up the bullpen.

Molina Back, Phillips Gone

Yankees Press Release:

The New York Yankees announced today they have signed catcher Jose Molina to a two-year contract. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Yankees designated infielder Andy Phillips for assignment.
Molina, 32, was acquired by the Yankees on July 21, 2007, from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in exchange for RHP Jeff Kennard. He hit a combined .257 (49-for-191) with 18R, 13 doubles, 1 HR and 19 RBI in 69 games (53 starts at catcher) with the Angels and Yankees in 2007, throwing out 27.0 percent of attempted base stealers (12-of-43).
In 29 games with the Yankees, Molina batted .318 (21-for-66) with 5 doubles, 1 HR and 9 RBI, hitting safely in 12 of his 16 starts with five multi-hit games. Included was a .355 mark in the month of September (11-for-31), his highest monthly average since July 2002 (.360) with the Angels. He also batted .444 (8-for-18) with runners in scoring position after joining the Yankees.
The Puerto Rico native has appeared in 402 career games over parts or all of eight Major League seasons with the Chicago Cubs, Angels and Yankees. He owns a .243 career batting average (253-for-1,043) with 55 doubles, 16 HR and 107 RBI and has thrown out 37.9 percent of attempted base stealers in his career (91-of-240).
Molina was originally selected by the Cubs in the 14th round of the 1993 First-Year Player Draft. He is one of three Molina brothers currently playing in the Majors (Bengie – San Francisco and Yadier - St. Louis).
Phillips, 30, batted .292 (54-for-185) with 2HR and 25RBI in 61 games with the Yankees in 2007 after joining the club from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on June 19. He was originally selected by the Yankees in the seventh round of the 1999 First-Year Player Draft.


Great news about Molina but its to bad about Phillips. It was probably the smart move but he seemed like a nice guy. Good Luck elsewhere

For What Its Worth....

A guy on the NYYFans message board is saying the Yankees and Twins have reached an agreement. Supposedly, he knows this from a contact at Goldman-Sachs. This is the same guy that knew about the A-Rod deal early because of the same source. Its probably nothing but I thought I`d mention it anyway. By the way, this guy is a Boston fan.

What Next? First base

Last year the Yankees had a battle between Andy Phillips and Josh Phelps for the the right-handed half of a plattoon with Doug Mientkiewicz. Phillips missed most of Spring Training and Phelps was incredible and won the job. Phillips passed through waivers and went down to AAA.

Mientkiewicz was terrible and Yankees fans everywhere wanted him gone and Josh Phelps to get playing time. When Phelps did get playing time he couldn't field for his life. Phillips raked in AAA and got another shot. Mientkiewicz also got injured in a game agaisnt Boston. This gave Andy Phillips a shot and he hit and fielded well. He wasn't great but he was okay.

At the trade deadline Wilson Betemit was traded for Scott Proctor to help out at first. Shelley Duncan also got called up. Before long Mientkiewicz came back to. Betemit wasn't very good and didn't get much playing time but Shelley showed a lot of power and Mientkiewicz returned well. By September they had a few hot hitters at first.

Next year Doug Mientkiewicz is probably gone and after his late season slump Andy Phillips might not get another shot. Shelley Duncan and Wilson Betemit could be an effective plattoon at first and Juan Miranda kills righties.

All in all it wasn't a very good first base situation but they were carried by the rest of the team. I don't really see it getting much better either.

However, moving Damon to first base is a possibility. He played a few games there lasy uear. What if they traded away Matsui, moved Damon to first, and then signed Kosuke Fukudome to play left?

2007 WARP3- 4.0

Projected 2008 WARP3- 7.0

Change in WARP3- 3.0

HoF Veterans Committee

Today the Hall of Fame elected Bowie Kuhn, Walter O`Malley, Billy Southworth, Barney Dreyfuss, and Dick Williams. Today is a sad day when the man who moved one of the most popular teams in history is given baseball's most prestigious honor. If you`re going to the actual election please boo. Congratulations to all the others.

Santana Deadline

Hank has given the Twins until late today to accept the Yankees offer of Hughes, Melky, and another prospect or the Red Sox offer of Ellsbury, a pitching prospect (Masteron?), and Lowrie. If the Twins take the Yankees offer and that last prospect is something like Alberto Gonzalez then I won't be to annoyed but I`d rather the Red Sox give up their studs. Personally, I think the Twins will take Boston's offer since we`ve heard they inexplicably like Ellsbury more than Hughes. That`s fine though. For people hoping for closure on this, keep waiting. The winner still has to work out a contract with Santana.

Project P46 is a Success

Andy Pettitte is coming back according to ESPN. He said earlier he would only come back to the yankees and I doubt he`ll go back on his word now. Pettitte was a key member of the rotation last year. He`s a big innings eater and will solidify the rotation. Thank god.

Santana Update

News on Santana comes fast. According to Buster Olney the Yankees could set a deadline on their current offer of Hughes, Cabrera, and another lower prospect. The Red Sox have also changed their offer to include Ellsbury instead of Hughes, take out Lester, and upgraded the rest of it. Olney mentions Justin Masterson. The Twins also like Ellsbury more than Hughes. Fine with me. Let Boston sell the farm. Also remember, their is still Santana's NTC.

What Next? Second Base

I said my ideal team would have Jeter at second and Cano at short but its easier to compare them at their current positions.

Cano followed up on a chase for the BA title in 2006 with another, arguably even better season. His defense developed to the point where he actually contributed two wins above the average second baseman according to Baseball Prospectus' fielding stats. Although his batting average declined he also walked more and his power numbers increased. He improved his HR total by 5, he had 6 more triples, and the same number of doubles. His line was .306/.353/.488/.292 (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA).

I believe that the past two years Cano has been the best second baseman in baseball. He`s also only 25 and cheap. The Yankees can't trade him for Santana. I`m not even sure I`d trade Cano for Santana straight up. Keep in mind the projection is made without any actual system and just made with a general idea of how WARP3 is scaled.

2007 WARP3- 11.8

Projected 2008 WARP3- 12

Change in WARP3- .2

Trading away the Franchise

It looks like the Yankees are going to be willing to deal Hughes for Santana. Not only Hughes but also Melky and another top prospect (probably Austin Jackson).

In Hughes we have the best pitching prospect in baseball who had two freak injuries and came back strong. He was getting back his fastball towards the end of the year thanks to Dave Eiland. His curve is Zito-esque. He`s still the Franchise and future of the Yankees. I fully expect him to pitch very well next year, not as good as Santana but very well. He`s above where Santana was at this age to.

Melky is above the pace of where many stars were at his age. He helps loosen up the team and appears to be especially good friends with Cano and Alex. He`s not a very good hitter but if he regains his plate disciplince he had in 2006 he could become very good. His defense has saved countless runs. You want more of Damon in center? Nah, lets sign Aaron Rowand instead.

Then we`ll probably have to give up another good prospect, Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, or Alan Horne. Jackson would be the one expected to take Melky's role eventually.If they go with Melky then who's our future center fielder? Tabata has had some injury problems but that also explains his lack of power. He`s incredibly young and has hit for a very high average. He has the potential to be a star if he can stop the injuries. Horne has been called better than Kennedy in some place and "has stuff just a tick below Joba's."

Santana's an ace, he`s left-handed, and it prevents him from going to the Red Sox but is he worth all this talent? Especially when Hughes could eventually be just as good as him? He`s on the way down and Hughes is on the way up. I don't think the decline will be as rapid as some people think but they`ll probably meet in a few years. Sure, Hughes could be a bust but their is absolutely nothing to suggest that he won't be a future #1 ace, best pitcher in baseball. If the Yankees do this deal they really are trading away the future, and the Franchise.