Saturday, July 14, 2007

The statistics I use

I`d like to make a a post to explain how I evaluate pitchers. I`ll make a seperate one for hitters. If you understand the concept of DIPS then feel free to skip this post.

First of all I hate ERA. I don't think it measure pitchers talent well for these reasons:

  1. A pitcher with a team that has good defense will have a better ERA than a pitcher on a team with bad defense
  2. The location of a batted ball is mostly due to luck
  3. Whether a run is earned or not is not a fact. It is an opinion.
  4. ERA needs many adjustments for the offensive enviornment even within one season

Because of this I created my own statistic RCA. It is based on K's, BB's, HBP's, GB%, FB%, LD%, the value in runs of these events, and the percentage of the time they are outs. Unfortunately, I don't know a website that shows the batted ball data needed to calculate it for minor league players. Because of this I use statistics like K/BB, HR's allowed, BABIP, FIP, and LOB% to evaluate minor league players. K/BB is obvious, it is the ratio of SO's a pitcher has to the BB's he`s allowed. This event is totally in control of the pitcher HR's allowed is also in total control of the pitcher. BABIP shows how lucky a pitcher has been with the location of the batted balls he`s surrendered. FIP is a statistic that puts together K/BB and HR's allowed to form a number that is scaled to ERA to make it easier to understand. LOB% shows how many runners a pitcher has stranded on base and how lucky he has been with his distribution of hits.

Well that wasn't exactly my best post I figured that I should explain my ramblings.

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