Pitching Statistic

A while ago I wrote about a stat I created called Runs Created Average (RCA). Looking back the post I made was pretty rambling and I`ve tinkered with it since then. Judging by the poll I made about it a lot of you weren't reading this blog then either.

It has been shown that ERA, WHIP, hits, and other traditional pitching statistics are poor indicators of a pitcher's true skill and poor predictors of pitchers future performance. This is because hits heavily affect these stats and hits are largely determined by the defense and the luck of the placement of batted balls. The writer of that article, Voros McCracken, then proceded to figure out what stats were not affected by defense or the luck of the batted ball. He decided to use SO's, BB"s, and HR's to create a new stat called DIPS ERA.

When I first read about this in Baseball Between the Numbers. It showed how consistent several statistics wehere and compared to the others stats used in DIPS, SO's and BB's, HR's where very low. Later I also learned about another theory that pitchers can't control their HR/FB% (meaning that pitchers can control whether a ball is a FB or a GB but not what that GB or FB ends up being, the HR/FB% theory is not universally accepted).

I thought it would make more sense to use batted ball types (GB's, FB's, LD's, and IFFB's) instead of HR's. So after looking around a little I found the percentage of the time the different batted ball types and the run values for BB's, SO's, and HBP's were outs.

Here is the percentage of the time each of these events were outs:

SO= 100%

BB= 0%

HBP= 0%

GB= 77.2%

FB= 81.2%

IFFB= 96.2%

LD= 18.8%


This can be used to find out how many outs the pitcher should have gotten. You convert these to decimals and multiply it by the amount of times the appropriate event happened. This will get you the amount of outs that should have happened on each event. Add these up and you`ll get the total amount of outs the pitcher should have gotten.

Here's the fomula for Expected Outs Pitched:

EOP= (SO*1.00)+(BB*0.00)+(HBP*0.00)+(GB*.772)+(LD*.1 88)+(FB*.812)+(IFFB*.962)

You then divide this by three to convert it to Expected Innings Pitched

EIP= EOP/3

Next you have to figure out how many runs should have been given up and to do this you need to figure out the run value of each event. These were determined using play by play data to find how many runs a team would be expected to score before one of these events happened and after. The value of the event is how much the amount of runs expected to be scored is changed by on average.

Here is how many runs each event adds to the average situation:

SO= --0.287 runs
BB= 0.315 runs
HBP= 0.342 runs
GB= --0.101 run
FB= 0.035 runs
IFFB= --0.243 runs
LD= 0.356 runs

You can use this to figure out how many runs a pitcher should have given up above average by multiplying each event's value by the amount of times that event happened with that pitcher pitching. You then add them all up. I call this Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average.

Here's the formula with the values of each event put it:

ERSAA= (SO* -.287)+(IFFB*-.243)+(GB* -.101)+(FB*0.035)+(LD*0.356)+(BB*0.315)+(HBP*0.342)

This doesn't give you the the actual number of runs the pitcher should have given up though. You need to add the ERSAA to the number of runs the average pitcher would give up in as many innings as the pitcher who`s RCA you are figuring out. So next you multiply the Expected Innings Pitched by the Average Runs Scored per game and add the Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average. This gets you Expected Runs Surrendered.

ERS= (EIP*ARS)+ERSAA

Now finally you can figure out Runs Created Average by using what is essentially the formula for ERA.

RCA= (ERS/EIP)*9


As an example I`ll compare the Yankees and Red Sox's projected starting rotations for 2008. Unfortunately, I don't know of a site that tracks batted ball data for minor leaguers and I don't want to use Joba's stats in the bullpen so Clay Bucholz, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain won't be used. The Yankees only have 4 of their pitchers that I can find their RCA's for so I`ll just compare the top four (according to each official website) for both teams. Keep in mind that 4.50 is average.


Yankees:


1) Chien Ming Wang- 184 Expected Innings, 90 Expected Runs, 4.34 RCA

2) Andy Pettite- 209 Expected Innings, 103 Expected Runs, 4.43 RCA

3) Phil Hughes- 72 Expected Innings, 35 Expected Runs, 4.38 RCA

4) Mike Mussina- 149 Expected Innings, 80.5 Expected Runs, 4.86



Team- 614 Expected Innings, 308.5 Expected Runs, 4.52 RCA


Red Sox:

1) Josh Beckett-207 Expected Innings, 68 Expected Runs, 2.96 RCA

2) Curt Schilling- 154 Expected Innings, 73 Expected Runs, 4.27 RCA

3) Daisuke Matsuzaka- 206 Expected Innings, 92 Expected Runs, 4.02 RCA

4) Tim Wakefield- 187 Expected Innings, 94 Expected Runs, 4.52 RCA



Team- 754 Expected Innings, 327 Expected Runs, 3.90 RCA


This obviously shows that the Yankees have basically an average rotation while the Red Sox have a very good one. In fact, its not even close. However, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Clay Bucholz, and Jon Lester all either don't make the cut for the four man rotatuion or have not enough experience as a starter in the majors and will likely be important players which might help the Yankees a bit but not enough.

Thanks for reading all this. I`d love some feedback on it :)

Canseo's book out by Opening Day

The broke, desperate, attention seek- I mean the award winning author, Jose Canseco, is coming out with another book by opening day. Why didn't he write all this stuff in the first one?

Leyritz Arrested

This morning Jim Leyritz was arrested for DUI. He hit a woman and killed her. Driving while drunk is possibly the stupudist thing you could ever do. Now he`s got 15 years in jail to wonder why he didn't hire a cab.

Cano out of Winter Ball

Cano was told by the Yankees to stop playing winter ball. He said it was to help a calf injury heal.

What Next? Right Field

At the 2006 trade deadline Brian Cashman managed to pull of a trade of Matt Smith and C. J. Henry for Bobby Abreu from the Phillies. The Phillies didn't want to pay him and thought he was in steep decline and got a reliever who had done great in his rookie year in Matt Smith and a former first round pick in C. J. Henry. Since then Henry was released by teh Phillies the past year and resigned by the Yankees and Smith had an 11.25 ERA last year after intially doing well. Abreu was an on base machine in the second half of 2006 and although he struggled at the beginning of 2007 he turned his season around and played well enough to convince the Yankees to pick up his one year 16 million dollar option for 2008.

I would have preferred to see the Yankees pick up his option and then trade him like they did with Sheffield but he shoudl be able to play right-field solidly. Hopefully, he won't get off to the terrible start he had in 2007. His final line was .289/.369/.445/.294 (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA) but his fear of the walls on defense is annoying. Its gotten so bad that even his great arm can't make up for it.

I don't see him doing much better or worse than last year but I think he might improve a little just because he won't repeat that terrible first half. He`s probably overpaid but not nearly as much as Tori Hunter or any of the other free agent outfielders. He`s flawed but in the end he`ll get the job done.

2007 WARP3- 7.3

Projected 2008 WARP3- 8.0

Wins Gained- .7

Twins back down

According to Murray Chass the Twins have lowered their demands for the third player in a Santana trade to the Yankees. Instead of Ian Kennedy they now want Jeff Marquez. Hopefully, this will be resolved soon. THis is a tough call for the Yankees but Hughes, Cabrera, and Marquez is fairly reasonable for Santana even considering the contract extension

Its official, Craig Biggio is the Grittiest Player of All-time

http://www.flotsam-media.com/2007/12/flotsam-data-special-tangiblizing.html

Brilliant, just brilliant

Joba to start season in Bullpen

I really hope the Yankees are telling the truth in that its only temporary. People may say Joba is the perfect closer with his 98 mph fastball and insane slider. However, he has several other good pitches. As soon as somebody falters JOba better be switched back. That`s all I can say.

Grimsley Affidavit Out

The controversial Jason Grimsley affidavit will be unsealed soon and it doesn't sound like Clemens or Pettitte's names are in it. I`m really getting sick of this steroid stuff.

Congratulations to the Royals

for getting mediocore at best lefty Ron Mahay for the next two years at 9 million per year. I`m a little late on this. I`ve been very busy lately and nothing`s really happened that`s caused me to jump to my keyboard.

Pettitte Admission

Andy Pettitte admitted to trying HGH in 2002 while on the DL earlier today. I`m dissapointed but he said it was only for 2 days and he quit and I`m inclined to believe him. The more I think about it the more I think Clemens did it to. And I doubt he did it for just two days.

Who knows, and at this point, who cares?

Steroids

I`ve thought about the Mitchell report for a bit now and I really think its lacking in evidence in many areas. I can't blame Mitchell for this and I think it was right for us to have it open to the public. However, the media has really taken things and put them out of context. Headlines like "Pettitte, Clemens in Mitchell report" or pictures of every one of the player's who's names were mentioned on the back page of a certain Long Island newspaper looks good. However, its not that accurate.

Its not a double standard I`m putting with Bonds and Clemens. I`m not a racist. The fact is they wrote an entire book about Bonds' steroid use and all they have to go for Clemens is the word of a criminal. Pettitte, same deal, and even if they`re being honest he used them for less than one year. The fact is they`re is very little evidence to back the claim that Pettitte and Clemens used steroids up.

Jose Canseco said he was surprised that A-Rod wasn't in the report. I say shut up and go away. If you think A-Rod used steroids just say so and tell us why. Don't drop these annoying hints and then don't back them up.

Clemens Denial

Shocking but Clemens denies using steroids. Doesn't really mean anything. Just thought I`d mention it.

Mitchell Reprt

As I`m reading more an interesting fac is Kirk Radomski was supposedly a major course. He did this to shorten a prison sentence and now runs a car wash. How reliable can he really be?

More thoughts will come later after the Selig Conference, I`m still trying to get caught up.

Mitchell Report

Among the players named in the Mitchell Report it included Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. I`d like to hear a bit more about it personally. I`m not quite sure how reliable it is. A trainer admitted to injecting them but, again. I`m not so sure about it. I`d like to hear what Andy and Roger have to say. Mitchell is also not exactly unbiased

Non-Tenders

TJ Beam, Matt DeSalvo, and Darell Rasner have all been non-tendered. I feel bad for Rasner. He`s pitched very well in his time in the majors and would be useful insurance. I really hope some team gives him a shot. Mark Prior has also been non-tendered. I know he`s constantly injured but the Yankees could get lucky with him. He might be worth a shot.

Big News Day

After a few days of nothing a lot has happened today.

• Fukudome was signed by the Cubs for 4 years and 48 million dollars. Obviously that puts an end to my idea of trading Matsui and having him fill Matsui's role. That's a pretty solid deal for the Cubs and he should help them a lot.
• Aaron Rowand has been signed by the Giants for a five year deal but for somew weird reason the Giants don't give out money amounts. Odds are they overpaid. Rowand had a career year at just the right time. He`s only had one other season like last years and he`s getting older. He`s injury prone and I`m happy the Yankees won't be wasting any money on him.
• How does the Rowand deal affect a potential Matsui trade? The Giants still need a left-fielder and even Brian Sabean isn't deluded enough to think Aaron Rowand can replace Barry Bonds.
• Miguel Tejada was traded to the Astros for five players. Great, he always killed the Yankees and I`m glad to see him go.
• Wang also wants a long-term contract extension.

Well that's it for now. The free agent market is now barren and with Santana seemingly staying put for the moment the hot stove league has cooled down.

LaTroy "bleeping" Hawkins

Ona forum I visit that`s how one Orioles fan referred to Latroy Hawkins when he was with the Orioles. Well, now the Yankees have signed him to a one year, 3.75 million dollar deal. I guess its an okay signing but nothing to get excited about. An odd note is that his GB% went from a mediocore 40% or so every year of his career to an excellent 60% last year.

Crazy Idea

What if the Yankees went ahead on the Matsui for Lincecum trade, lets say Matsui, Kennedy, Horne, and cash, moved Damon to first, and then signed Kosuke Fukudome? That solves the first base hole and adds insurance if Giambi collapses. It won't happen but its something to think about.

Pettitte in, Sardinha out

Petitte was officially added to the 40 man roster yesterday so Bronson Sardinha was DFA'ed. Remember the walk-off he had in Spring Training last year? He`s no loss though.

Erik Bedard

The Yankees and Red Sox have made the two best offers for Erik Bedard. I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox were just doing this to pressure the Twins into accepting a Santana trade but I`m interested by this rumour. I`d say Hughes is out of the question but I could see a deal built around Kennedy and I`d love that. As I`ve said many times I`d rather have Bedard than Santana.

Little Things

A few bits of new and notes today but n0othing major

• Vizcaino is done with the Yankees. Supposedly they`re showing no interest in him at all. Fine with me. They offered arbitration so if any other team signs him the Yankees will get a draft pick. He was mediocore last year with good stretches and terrible stretches. He`s no big loss.
• The Mitchell Report could come out by Thursday. Chance of any big Red Sox players being on the list, 0%.
• Andy could pitch in 2009. Lets wait and see how he does in 2008 first.
• The Shelley Duncan blood clot was a serious thing.However, he`s recovered now. Thank god.
• The Yankees are rumoured to be interested in Kazuo Fukumori. I don't get it looking at his age and his numbers.

Godzilla to Giants?

An interesting rumor is Mastui to the Giants for Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. Matsui is an all-star and a very good player but a big part of his value is how he opens up the Japanese market. If Matsui is traded could signing Fukudome be next? I think Fukudome could replace Matsui very well. Cain and Lincecum are both studs as well. Especially Lincecum. Matsui has a no trade clause so obviously this could be nothing.

Catch Up

I didn't manage to get on a computer yesterday so I have to do some catching up.

First of all the Twins offered Santana for Hughes, Melky, Hilligross, and Marquez. I`m shocked Cash turned that one down but I think he made the right move. Hughes is an above average pitcher right now in my opinion and should only get better. He has electric stuff, pinpoint control, and his injuries have no sign of reoccuring. Melky is an above average center fielder at age 23. I don't understand the people who say he`ll never get any better. If nothing else this shows that Cashman has not lost any power at all in the organization. Or this could just be a false report.

Second, one reason the deal was not done according to Bill Madden was the Yankees payroll. Their is a limit to what they can spend. As a free agent Santana would be worth that but also giving up all the prospects? Its not worth it.

Third, we`ve gone from hearing that Santana very well may not move at all to hearing their are teams other than the Red Sox in the mix. If Santana stays with the Twins he`ll probably leave in the off-season and with the Yankees losing a few bad/big contracts next year (Giambi, Pavano, Mussina, Abreu, and Farnsworth). All of these guys should be replaced with cheap players. If Santana goes to a team other than Boston that's even better.

Here's the Boston and New York rotation with no trades. That`s pretty close and the Yankees might have the upper hand if Hughes has a good year.

1) Wang-----------------1) Beckett
2) Pettitte---------------2) Schilling
3) Hughes---------------3) Matsuzaka
4) Chamberlain--------4) Wakefield
5) Mussina/Kennedy---5) Lester/Bucholz

No Santana, No Haren

Last night Hank said the Yankees were out on Haren and Santana. If Beane really wasn't going to lower his asking price then okay. Bedard probably won't be traded in division so I guess they`ll start the season with Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy which isn't necesarily a terrible thing.

No 6 Man Rotation

Joe Girardi said earlier that the Yankees will not be going with a six man rotation next year. I just hope this doesn't mean Joba's heading to the bullpen. If not then its pretty smart. Pitcher's are pampered enough.

Santana Deal Dead, Cabrera+Willis to Tigers

It looks like Santana to the Yankees is all but dead. Thank god. I`m half-hoping he really does go to the Red Sox instead of the Angels.

In other news the Marlins and Tigers have managed to pull off a blockbuster with the Tigers getting Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera for Camron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Dallas Trahern. Miller and Maybin are huge prospects and their are a couple other decent ones in there. Willis didn't look good at all last year or really the year before. However, Cabrera is a beast. They`re going to have a murderous lineup next year. I think the Tigers may have overpayed a bit.

Santana to Angels?

The Angels have jumped into the mix for Santana offering Brandon Wood and Jered Weaver. Maybe they`ll drive the bidding up.

Update

We`ve heard a few more reports suggesting Santana to the Red Sox and the Yankees focusing on Dan Haren. I think this is great news. The prospects Boston is giving up are not scrubs. They`re really very good and at critical positions for the Red Sox. A lot of Boston fans have hoped that Lowrie could come up and take Lugo's job. Masterson is a good pitching prospect. Ellsbury and Lester could both be future all stars. Haren won't cost as much as Santana no matter how cheap he is in terms of money.

Santana Deadline Comes and Goes

The deadline for a Santana deal came and went and Santana is still a Twin. ESPNews just said they`re still talking but Jon Heyman has said they are ending trade talks. The Twins have backed off Kennedy but they are still disagreeing on the third player. I still believe they could have Dan Haren or Eric Bedard without giving up Hughes and should pursue them instead. How dumb can the Twins be? Why don't they just take Melky, Hughes, and Gonzalez? They really don't need another prospect and the Yankees have a better offer than Boston. If they`d rather take Taco boy, an Alan Horne esque pitching prospect, and Lowrie instead of the best pitching prospect in baseball and a ML ready center fielder who's 23 fine with me.

Clippard Trade

Last night Tyler Clippard was trade for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo. I don't know to much about him but he had great stats in the major and minor leagues. He should help shore up the bullpen.

Molina Back, Phillips Gone

Yankees Press Release:

The New York Yankees announced today they have signed catcher Jose Molina to a two-year contract. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Yankees designated infielder Andy Phillips for assignment.
Molina, 32, was acquired by the Yankees on July 21, 2007, from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in exchange for RHP Jeff Kennard. He hit a combined .257 (49-for-191) with 18R, 13 doubles, 1 HR and 19 RBI in 69 games (53 starts at catcher) with the Angels and Yankees in 2007, throwing out 27.0 percent of attempted base stealers (12-of-43).
In 29 games with the Yankees, Molina batted .318 (21-for-66) with 5 doubles, 1 HR and 9 RBI, hitting safely in 12 of his 16 starts with five multi-hit games. Included was a .355 mark in the month of September (11-for-31), his highest monthly average since July 2002 (.360) with the Angels. He also batted .444 (8-for-18) with runners in scoring position after joining the Yankees.
The Puerto Rico native has appeared in 402 career games over parts or all of eight Major League seasons with the Chicago Cubs, Angels and Yankees. He owns a .243 career batting average (253-for-1,043) with 55 doubles, 16 HR and 107 RBI and has thrown out 37.9 percent of attempted base stealers in his career (91-of-240).
Molina was originally selected by the Cubs in the 14th round of the 1993 First-Year Player Draft. He is one of three Molina brothers currently playing in the Majors (Bengie – San Francisco and Yadier - St. Louis).
Phillips, 30, batted .292 (54-for-185) with 2HR and 25RBI in 61 games with the Yankees in 2007 after joining the club from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on June 19. He was originally selected by the Yankees in the seventh round of the 1999 First-Year Player Draft.


Great news about Molina but its to bad about Phillips. It was probably the smart move but he seemed like a nice guy. Good Luck elsewhere

For What Its Worth....

A guy on the NYYFans message board is saying the Yankees and Twins have reached an agreement. Supposedly, he knows this from a contact at Goldman-Sachs. This is the same guy that knew about the A-Rod deal early because of the same source. Its probably nothing but I thought I`d mention it anyway. By the way, this guy is a Boston fan.

What Next? First base

Last year the Yankees had a battle between Andy Phillips and Josh Phelps for the the right-handed half of a plattoon with Doug Mientkiewicz. Phillips missed most of Spring Training and Phelps was incredible and won the job. Phillips passed through waivers and went down to AAA.

Mientkiewicz was terrible and Yankees fans everywhere wanted him gone and Josh Phelps to get playing time. When Phelps did get playing time he couldn't field for his life. Phillips raked in AAA and got another shot. Mientkiewicz also got injured in a game agaisnt Boston. This gave Andy Phillips a shot and he hit and fielded well. He wasn't great but he was okay.

At the trade deadline Wilson Betemit was traded for Scott Proctor to help out at first. Shelley Duncan also got called up. Before long Mientkiewicz came back to. Betemit wasn't very good and didn't get much playing time but Shelley showed a lot of power and Mientkiewicz returned well. By September they had a few hot hitters at first.

Next year Doug Mientkiewicz is probably gone and after his late season slump Andy Phillips might not get another shot. Shelley Duncan and Wilson Betemit could be an effective plattoon at first and Juan Miranda kills righties.

All in all it wasn't a very good first base situation but they were carried by the rest of the team. I don't really see it getting much better either.

However, moving Damon to first base is a possibility. He played a few games there lasy uear. What if they traded away Matsui, moved Damon to first, and then signed Kosuke Fukudome to play left?

2007 WARP3- 4.0

Projected 2008 WARP3- 7.0

Change in WARP3- 3.0

HoF Veterans Committee

Today the Hall of Fame elected Bowie Kuhn, Walter O`Malley, Billy Southworth, Barney Dreyfuss, and Dick Williams. Today is a sad day when the man who moved one of the most popular teams in history is given baseball's most prestigious honor. If you`re going to the actual election please boo. Congratulations to all the others.

Santana Deadline

Hank has given the Twins until late today to accept the Yankees offer of Hughes, Melky, and another prospect or the Red Sox offer of Ellsbury, a pitching prospect (Masteron?), and Lowrie. If the Twins take the Yankees offer and that last prospect is something like Alberto Gonzalez then I won't be to annoyed but I`d rather the Red Sox give up their studs. Personally, I think the Twins will take Boston's offer since we`ve heard they inexplicably like Ellsbury more than Hughes. That`s fine though. For people hoping for closure on this, keep waiting. The winner still has to work out a contract with Santana.

Project P46 is a Success

Andy Pettitte is coming back according to ESPN. He said earlier he would only come back to the yankees and I doubt he`ll go back on his word now. Pettitte was a key member of the rotation last year. He`s a big innings eater and will solidify the rotation. Thank god.

Santana Update

News on Santana comes fast. According to Buster Olney the Yankees could set a deadline on their current offer of Hughes, Cabrera, and another lower prospect. The Red Sox have also changed their offer to include Ellsbury instead of Hughes, take out Lester, and upgraded the rest of it. Olney mentions Justin Masterson. The Twins also like Ellsbury more than Hughes. Fine with me. Let Boston sell the farm. Also remember, their is still Santana's NTC.

What Next? Second Base

I said my ideal team would have Jeter at second and Cano at short but its easier to compare them at their current positions.

Cano followed up on a chase for the BA title in 2006 with another, arguably even better season. His defense developed to the point where he actually contributed two wins above the average second baseman according to Baseball Prospectus' fielding stats. Although his batting average declined he also walked more and his power numbers increased. He improved his HR total by 5, he had 6 more triples, and the same number of doubles. His line was .306/.353/.488/.292 (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA).

I believe that the past two years Cano has been the best second baseman in baseball. He`s also only 25 and cheap. The Yankees can't trade him for Santana. I`m not even sure I`d trade Cano for Santana straight up. Keep in mind the projection is made without any actual system and just made with a general idea of how WARP3 is scaled.

2007 WARP3- 11.8

Projected 2008 WARP3- 12

Change in WARP3- .2

Trading away the Franchise

It looks like the Yankees are going to be willing to deal Hughes for Santana. Not only Hughes but also Melky and another top prospect (probably Austin Jackson).

In Hughes we have the best pitching prospect in baseball who had two freak injuries and came back strong. He was getting back his fastball towards the end of the year thanks to Dave Eiland. His curve is Zito-esque. He`s still the Franchise and future of the Yankees. I fully expect him to pitch very well next year, not as good as Santana but very well. He`s above where Santana was at this age to.

Melky is above the pace of where many stars were at his age. He helps loosen up the team and appears to be especially good friends with Cano and Alex. He`s not a very good hitter but if he regains his plate disciplince he had in 2006 he could become very good. His defense has saved countless runs. You want more of Damon in center? Nah, lets sign Aaron Rowand instead.

Then we`ll probably have to give up another good prospect, Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, or Alan Horne. Jackson would be the one expected to take Melky's role eventually.If they go with Melky then who's our future center fielder? Tabata has had some injury problems but that also explains his lack of power. He`s incredibly young and has hit for a very high average. He has the potential to be a star if he can stop the injuries. Horne has been called better than Kennedy in some place and "has stuff just a tick below Joba's."

Santana's an ace, he`s left-handed, and it prevents him from going to the Red Sox but is he worth all this talent? Especially when Hughes could eventually be just as good as him? He`s on the way down and Hughes is on the way up. I don't think the decline will be as rapid as some people think but they`ll probably meet in a few years. Sure, Hughes could be a bust but their is absolutely nothing to suggest that he won't be a future #1 ace, best pitcher in baseball. If the Yankees do this deal they really are trading away the future, and the Franchise.

Erik Bedard or Dan Haren?

The Orioles are having trouble negotiating an extension for Erik Bedard. Their's a few teams that have asked about him and the Yankees are one of them.

Their`s another report about the Yankees and Dan Haren to. This time its by Jon Heyman.

Both would cost less than Santana obviously and are worse but which one would you rather have?

Bedard set a franchise record for K's for the Orioles last year with 221 and really became a great pitcher. His 3.16 ERA last year was also excellent. His K/BB was 3.88 and he backed that up with a solid 47.9% GB%. This was a career year for him but he`s improved every year and is still below 30. He`s also left-handed which is an advantage at Yankees Stadium. He`s a free agent after the season and the Orioles won't be in competition for a while so he could be un-willing to resign with the Orioles. Instead of letting him go as a free agent it makes sense for the Orioles to trade him. He`d be the left-handed ace the Yankees lack and they could probably get away without giving up much. If their current offer for Santana is Kennedy, Melky, and another prospect then Bedard might be able to be had for Kennedy, Horne, and Gardner.

Haren is also coming of a career year and is about the same age. He had a 3.49 K/BB last year and a 44.4% GB%. He didn't SO nearly as much as Bedard either with 192. However, he has more of a track record than Bedard. He`s not a free agent for another few years and he`s cheap so Billy Beane will make any team that tries to trade for him pay a lot. He`ll cost more to get than Bedard in terms of talent but will be a lot cheaper in terms of money. Billy Beane is a smart GM and will make any other team pay. It could cost something like Kennedy, Jackson, and Horne.

So who's the better option? I think both are better options than Santana because of what it will take to get Santana. I think I`d prefer Bedard but its a tough choice.

Mark Loretta

Buster Olney is reporting that the Yanks are close to a deal with Mark Loretta. I don't really like this. It doesn't make sense when Gonzalez or Betemit can probably do the same.

Bullpen Help

Percivical and Riske have both signed elsewhere. The Yanks offered Percivical more than the Devil Rays but he wanted to close.

Dontrelle Willis

Remember last year when the biggest trade option for the Yankees was Dontrelle Willis? Remember the different potential offers involving Hughes, Melky, Cano, and others? Last year Willis was mediocore at best. Sometimes the best deals you make are the one`s you don't make.

Melky, Hughes or Kennedy, and 2 prospects for Santana?

Jon Heyman says that the Twins have asked for Hughes or Kennedy, Melky, and 1-2 other prospects for Santana. If Cashman has Kennedy being treated as having similar value to Hughes then he`s a genius.I`m sorry to see Melky go and I`d like to see if the Yankees could change this to make it a 3 team deal so they can hang on to Melky. What could Damon fetch in terms of prospects if the Yankees picked up part of his salary? The White Sox have shown interest in Damon. Do they have any prospects left? Still, if its Kennedy and not Hughes then I`d be okay with this deal I think.

Cano and Joba Safe

So says the Star Ledger. Cano and Joba are going nowhere, not even for Santana and their smart in that but I`d add Hughes to that list. His absence makes me nervous he might be in a trade.

Steve Lombardi at WasWatching brings up an interesting point about Santana and that 17K game he had. After it he was never the same. After a full off-season of rest this might be a non-factor but its something to consider

Garza for Young

The Twins have traded Matt Garza for Delmon Young. It doesn't look like they`ll need another OF'er now. That really hurts the possibility of any deal involving Melky, Jackson, or Tabata. It also hurts any chance of the Yankees getting Santana. Actually, it also hurt the Red Sox's chances because of Ellsbury/Crisp.

I just hope the Yanks don't do something dumb and give up Hughes or Joba in a desperate attempt to get him. Trade for Haren instead.

Twins demands:

According to Jon Heyman the Twins have asked the Yankees for one of the trio, Melky, and another prospect. Lets say that prospect is Austin Jackson.

If the one of the trio is Kennedy than as much as I`m reluctant to I have to say yes. I`m reluctant because I`d like to see Melky stay with the Yankees. However, if the Melky is the thing stopping the deal from getting done you have to trade him.

If its Hughes or Joba than I wouldn't do it. They`re both solid pitchers right now and have the potential to be great. They`re also cheap. Melky is on a great pace and to be an above average center fielder for the Yankees as young as he is is a great accomplishment. Austin Jackson also has great potential.

Please Cash, don't let everything you`ve built get away for just one player, no matter how good he is.

Oleny: Santana Wants 150/6 years

This makes me happy. As I`ve said before I think Santana will cost to much in terms of talent in a trade and I`d prefer they traded for an alternative and just hoped Santana became a free agent. This high demand could knock a few teams out of the running. Possibly even the Red Sox because of the the PR aspect of them approaching the Yankees in payroll. It also limits the demands the Twins should be able to make.

More of Dan Haren

Another report that Dan Haren could be available.

Personally, I`d rather see the Yankees stay away from Santana and hope he gets to free agency and trade for Dan Haren. He`s a ton cheaper than Satana both in terms of talent it would cost and money. For the next three years he`ll be ridiculously cheap. He`s been very reliable all of his career. Last year was an aberration but he`s still a very good pitcher. Could Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne, Kei Igawa, and Cash be enough? I think it might and if so then I think you have to do it.

A Hard Working Manager....

The Cincinnati Enquirer:

Two weeks ago, Joe Girardi was in Orlando, Fla., huddling with coaches at the general managers' meetings to plan spring training for the Yankees. Last week, he was in the Dominican Republic at the team's new academy, viewing tryouts and speaking to the players, some as young as 16.
Joe Torre was often the only manager in the majors to skip the winter meetings. Girardi, meanwhile, is everywhere. The Yankees are not used to such offseason activity from their manager, but they like it.
"That's the whole point," Yankees vice president Hank Steinbrenner said. "He's an organization guy. He'll work with the entire organization. He'll be involved with Brian Cashman and the other people in the baseball office, including the scouts. He went down to the Dominican, of his own choosing, so the kids down there could get a chance to meet him.
"That's going to be his level of involvement. That's the way he is, and we think he's going to be a great manager to boot. We have very high hopes for Joe."

I`m happy to hear this. Imagine that, a manager that actually cares about the team in the off-season. Slowly I`m starting to like Girardi a lot more than Torre. Does this translate into wins? Maybe, at least if Girardi is still around a few years from now when some of these guys make the major leagues they`ll have a good relationship with him.

His reputation seems to be that he has a lot more energy than Torre and is more likely to make moves. Hank compared him to Billy Martin so the reputation looks like fact. Whatever happens it should be a fun year.

What Next? Shortstop

In a previous post I suggested that the Yankees switch Cano and Jeter's positions. However, WARP3's positional adjustments would make it harder to figure out what Cano's would be SS or Jeter's would at second. So, for the sake of simplicity I`ll project Jeter for the SS segment of these posts and Cano for the 2B segment.

Jeter quietly had a solid year but clearly declined from the last two. His .322/.388/.452/.300 (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA) line was a decline from his MVP type 2006 but still very good for a SS. His defensive skills also have declined even worse. The many double plays he grounded into in the playoffs also earned him some criticism (shocking isn't it). He`s still a very good player and one of the best middle infielders in baseball but he`s declining. His range at shortstop is especially showing decline. Its time to switch his position with Cano.

His off-year last year was a start of a trend I think. It won't be a quick decline and I think he`ll essentially repeat last year next year. However, they need to do something about his terrible defense.

How many times did you see balls go up the middle that he missed that ended up being critical hits last season? On the other hand, how many times did you see Cano grab (base) balls going up the middle that otherwise would have been hits? The opportunites to save or allow those hits are more numerous at shortstop than at second. Derek is still a fantastic hitter but he can't field. Keep in mind this projection is just a ballpark figure made knowing generally how WARP3 is scaled but without knowing the actual formula for WARP3 or using an actual projection system.

2007 WARP3- 8.8

2008 WARP3- 8.8

Win Change- 0

Poll on RCA

If anybody think that RCA is a bad stat than could you please explain why in the comments section and make any suggestions you have. I`d like to change it to make it better which is the purpose of this poll. Thanks :)

The Twins Starting Offer

The Twins reportedly want Melky, Hughes, and Austin Jackson for Santana. I wouldn't do this. The Twins want a starting center-fielder (Melky), a young major league ready pitcher (Hughes), and another prospect (Jackson). I doubt they`ll be negotiate it low enough to be worth it. I`d aim for Dan Haren or Joe Blanton instead.

New Poll

You may have noticed that I put up a new poll. I`m interested in people's opinion of RCA and if you could vote honestly I`d appreciate it.

Time to move Jeter?

Throughout his career Derek Jeter has been one of the most polarizing figures in baseball. Sabermetricians call him a future HoF'er and great hitter but is one of the worst defenders at his position ever and heavily overrated because of the clutch hitters myth. Baseball insiders, fans, analysts, and writers praise him for his intangibles and clutch hitting while pointing out famous, flashy defensive plays by him. The classic debate of A-Rod versus Jeter always turn into an argument about the merits of using statistics to evaluate players or not.

By now I`m sure you all know where I stand on this. A-Rod is better and stats are very useful but you don't even need stats to see Jeter's terrible defense. He misses balls up the middle average SS's get. The solution to this problem is obvious. The best SS in baseball is playing right next to Derek Jeter. By now I`m sure you`re all sick of hearing this blasphemy about A-Rod and previously I agreed that A-Rod was the best SS in baseball. However, Alex has gotten bigger and at this point can't play SS anymore. However, I still believe the best SS in baseball is playing next to Jeter.

I believe Robinson Cano is the best short-stop in baseball. He`s demonstrated tremendous range to both sides. He was also considered being moved to third so we know he has the arm for short. His defensive stats are excellent and our own observations can back the statistics up. His only problem is that he occasionally would lose focus earlier in the year when he was slumping. As the year progressed this became less of a problem.

I also think Cano is the most overlooked and underappreciated player on the Yankees. Sure, he`s a homegrown Yankee and everybody loves him for it but earlier in the year when he was slumping everybody wanted him gone. In the 2006 ALDS Cano was usually batted 9th or near there. He`s always been in the bottom half of the lineup. He`s overshadowed by HR hitting veterans, former champions and fututre HoF'ers, and even his more exciting, also young, friend, Melky Cabrera.

Last year he rebounded from a terrible first half to hit .306/.353/.488/.292 (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA) with top knotch defense from second. He is now generallly considered the best second baseman in baseball or at least the second best behind Jimmy Rollins. All this added up to an 11.8 WARP3. All of this is incredible for a 24 year old. If he were to be moved to shortstop his defense would be even more valuable.

What Next? Third Base

On Opening Day, 2007, Alex Rodriguez dropped a pop-up in foul territory and was booed heartily. Some fans were thinking, oh no not again. Other fans like me were in the minority and prepared to fight in his defense against the many naysayers and were worried he`d be booed into opting out. Fortunately, the batter was later retired and Alex later hit a home run in that game in a Yankees win.

He then went on to have a historic April with two walk-off HR's and prevented the team from falling to far out of contention. While he didn't repeat his April he had an overall excellent season and arguably the best ever by a third baseman. He had a solid (but sadly brief) postseason. He made statements about loving New York and looked like a lock to win the MVP and to sign an extension.

Then everything fell apart. In game four of the World Series with the Red Sox about to win the World Series it was reported that Alex was going to opt out. Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman made statements about the door being closed now because of the loss of money from Texas and his not appreciating being a Yankee. It looked like he going to sign elsewhere maybe even with Boston. The emotions of Yankees fans ranged from jubilance, to panic, to dissapoint and disgust. Mike Lowell, Miguel Cabrera, and even Joe Crede or Wilson Betemit were mentioned as possible solutions to the problem.

Then Alex turned around. For whatever reason he came back to the Yankees and asked to talk to them against the wishes of Scott Boras. He made a post on his website about wanting to go back to the Yankees, Hank Steinbrenner said Alex had made it clear that he wanted to be a Yankee. A 10 year, 275 million dollar deal seems eminent now for Alex. While some Yankees fans are disgusted that he`s coming back I believe most are just grateful the best player in baseball will be playing for them next year. Whatever your feelings about them are, he`s back with "unfinished buisness."

He had a historically great year last year with an unbelievable .354 EQA while playing above average third base defense. He hit 54 home runs, an unheard of total for a righthanded player who spends half his year in Yankees Stadium, smashing the old record of 48. This all added up to a 13.7 WARP3.

He won't replicate that next year but 2006 isn't his real talent level. In two of the past three years he`s had MVP years. Their is an explanation for his improvement over 2006 as well. He lost weight over the off-season and worked on a lower leg kick for his batting stance. The result of this was an increase in confidence and a decrease in SO's. He had his lowest SO total since 1999 and his lowest SO% since 2002. He worked on just putting the ball in play and not trying to hard and despite having a lower LD% and a lower BABIP he had a higher BA than 2006.

Also important was the fact that he worried less about pressure and put less on himself. He was open in Spring Training about the retarded Jeter thing and ended it. He made all other controversies go away with a quick no comment as well. He looked happier playing the game as well. He was a mentor to Cabrera and Cano and seemed to be good friends with them. He stopped worrying about being "the guy" and as a result became "the guy." Ironic isn't it?

These changes should remain for 2008 for Alex unless the Yanks do something stupid and trade away Cano and/or Cabrera. Hopefully, he`ll be able to somewhat replicate his 2007 season. He`ll decline but not all the way to 2006 numbers. Keep in mind this projection is just a ballpark figure made knowing generally how WARP3 is scaled but without knowing the actual formula for WARP3 or using an actual projection system.

2007 WARP3- 13.7

Projected 2008 WARP3- 11.5

Win Change- 2.2

What Next? Catcher

I wasn't really happy with what I did for the offense for this series of posts. So I`m going to redo it. Position by position.

For catcher Jorge Posada has been resigned for the next 4 years. He should be a productive player next year and one of the best in baseball but he`ll drop off. The general opinion around baseball is that he`s really an above average catcher but has never had a season like last year. He posted a .338/.426/.543/.337 line (BA/OBP/SLG%/EQA) with a WARP3 of 10.0. The truth is that 2007 arguably wasn't even his best season. In 2000 he had a 10.4 WARP3 and in 2003 he had a 10.1 WARP3. Not only that but in just 2006 he had a 9.1 WARP3. While 2007 was a fantastic season its not the first time he`s ever had one like that. He also started his career as an infielder so has less years as a catcher in his career and less wear and tear than the average catcher at his age. Jose Molina will also be the backup catcher the whole year and we won't have to worry about having automatic out, Wil Nieves, playing when Posada gets days off. So he should be a little better rested this year. His former mentor, Joe Girardi, is also back with the team and who knows what type of influence that could have on him. He`ll decline but nothing catastrophic. At least not in the first year. Keep in mind this projection is just a ballpark figure made knowing generally how WARP3 is scaled but without knowing the actual formula for WARP3 or using an actual projection system.

2007 WARP 3- 10.0

Projected 2008 WARP3- 7.0

Win Change- -3.0

Johan Santana

Ken Rosenthal elaborates on what the Twins would need to give up Santana. A young star and a few prospects? The young star would probably have to be Cano or Wang and then the other prospects would have to be probably Melky Cabrera and either Horne, Tabata, or Jackson. Is Santana worth this?

Well Wang had WARP3's of about 8 both of the last two years. Compare this to Santana's WARP3 of 9 last year. This was an off year for him but the year before it was about 11 and the year before that about 10. Lets say his real value is 10 wins above replacement level per year. Wang the past two years has been worth around 8 wins above replacement level. That`s a difference of two wins. Is that worth two prospects? No, I don't think so.

If its Cano we're giving up instead it looks even worse. Every year, Cano has steadily improved. He was third in the league in BA in 2006 and he`ll be making another run for the BA title in a few years I`ll bet. His HR totals have steadily increased each year. His plate disciplince also improved last year going from 18 BB's to 39. Scouts have raved about his power potential and even Don Mattingly said he could hit 30 HR's one day if he wanted to. He`s gone from being a below average defensive second baseman last year to being one of the best in baseball. Once again, improving every year, oh and by the way, he`s still 24 years old. Remember all those Rod Carew comparisons before this year that went away early in the season? Yeah, they`re coming back.

Melky Cabrera wouldn't even be the centerpiece of this deal and look at his value. He`s improved every year he`s been in the league. His defense has blossomed into being one of the best center-fielders in the league. He needs to regain the plate disciplince he showed in 2006 but he`s developing very nicely and had a better season than Mike Gonzalez did.

So all in all lets think about this for a minute. Cano had a WARP3 of about 12, plus Melky's WARP3 of about 7, plus Alan Horne who some say is better than Kennedy for Johan Santana, the best pitcher in baseball but still only averages around a WARP3 of 10 and maxes out at about 11.

Or we can do Wang and his WARP3 of about 8, plus Melky, plus Jose Tabata who was a top 20 prospect in baseball last year for Santana.

That's not even taking into account the chemistry effect of Cano and Cabrera (A-Rod?) or the 130 million we`ll also have to give up for Santana's next contract. Its just to much. Santana's percieved value is just way to high. A bonafide ace would be nice but its just not worth it. Let Omar and the Mets sell the farm for him. Let them give up their star middle infielder and top prospects. We`ll be laughing when 35 year old Johan Santana gives up a HR to Jose Reyes or Fernando Martinez of the Twins in the World Series.

Cordero signs

Fransisco Cordero has agreed to a 4 year 46 million dollar deal. The market this year seems just as insane as last year.

Joe Kennedy dies at age 28

Oakland A's pitcher, Joe Kennedy, died today. He passed out at home with his wife and son and died. ESPN hasn't said the cause. Its always sad when you hear about this. It makes you think about your own future. :(

What an awful day after Thanksgiving.

CJ Henry Signs

This is really not important but C.J. Henry signed with the Yankees. He`s a former first round pick and was the center-piece of the Abreu deal. However, his physical talent never translated to success. If he succeeds that would be a hilarious irony about the Abreu deal and its could to see him guys get second chances.

What Next? The Bullpen

I happened to look on the Yankees.com depth charts and realizing I still had to do the bullpen for this series of posts I looked over there. Since the Rivera deal has not been finalized and announced yet our closer is Krazy Kyle Frickin Farnsworth. Could you imagine that? That is why they are overpaying for Rivera. Thankfully, it looks like Rivera will be coming back. Still, the bullpen will be relying heavily on rookies like Edwar Ramirez, Ross Ohlendorf and Chris Britton. They`re going to need other help.Theirs been a million rumors about different potential FA signings.

The Yankees have been called the front-runners to sign Ron Mahay to a 2 year 5-7 million dollar deal. I don't like Mahay because of his weak K/BB and not very good GB%. He got lucky and looks great. Kei Igawa, Sean Henn, or Ron Villone could all do the same thing. He`s just a waste of money.

Scott Linebrink has also been rumored. He`s a good reliever and would definitely help solidify this bullpen but he`s a type A free agent and do you really want to give up your first round draft pick for Scott Linebrink? Anyway, Linebrink was signed by the White Sox.

Luis Vizcaino is also a free agent and did a pretty decent job last year despite filling Scott Proctor's role in Joe Torre's bullpen. With a new manager he could improve if the damage isn't already done.

The Yankees were mentioned as one of 8-10 teams interested in Troy Percival who did an excellent job with St. Louis. His 3.60 K/BB is very good and overcomes his poor GB% which most relievers have anyway. He almost retired last year and would probably only want a one year contract. I`m not sure but I don't think he is a type A free agent. The rankings are suppsoedly based on the past 3 years and his 2006 was so bad he probably wouldn't be type A. He`d be the perfect setup man for Rivera.

Actually theirs a guy who might be available that would be even more perfect than Percival. Bobby Jenks could be available for Melky+ or Damon+. He was an awesome closer for Chicago and even if he drops off (which he probably will do) he`d be an amazing setup man. I`d hang on to Melky but Damon would definitely be availabe if I was in charge of the Yanks. Linebrink's signing adds depth to Chicago's bullpen and Tori Hunter's signing takes away the obvious solution to their CF problem.

Here's my dream scenario. Sign Percival for whatever it takes, trade Damon, cash, and Clippard to Chicago for Jenks, bring back Vizcaino, finalize the Rivera deal, give Britton a spot, and then have an open competition in Spring Training for the last MR spot. I`d consider Edwar Ramirez, Ben Kozlowski, and Scott Patterson for the last MR spot. Sean Henn and Igawa can compete for the LOOGY role and can also be the long man. I don't include Cox or Xanchez because they won't be back in time for Spring Training probably but should be a likely call up.

CL Rivera
SU Jenks
SU Percival
MR Vizcaino
MR Britton
MR Ramirez/Patterson/Kozlowski
LOOGY/LM Igawa/Henn

Tori Hunter to Angels

Let the Tori Hunter to the Yankees rumors die now. For 90 million dollars the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim get Tori Hunter for the next 5 years. They`re overpaying and its not a smart deal but it will help them a lot in the short-term.

For the Yankees it opens up the possibility of trading either Melky or Damon for Bobby Jenks. Speaking of the White Sox they also signed Scott Linebrink who was a possibility for the bullpen I didn't like. Does this further open up the possibility of a Jenks trade. Or am I just overanalyzing things?

Has their been a busier November in recent memory?

Anyway, have a safe and happy Thanksgivving everyone :)

Melky on Trade Block? Johan Santana on Trade Block?

Melky Cabrera is being shopped by the Yankees in an effort to get more pitching. Johan Santana also turned down an offer from the Twins for 5 years, 93 million dollars. They`ll probably try to trade him now. Are these two events connected?

I like rooting for Melky and other prospects since we`ve followed them since being drafted and thats the only reason that these rumors don't make sense for me. Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy could easily all fizzle. Melky could easily never be more than he is now, a league average CF'er and Santana could be a HoF'er but if they pan out..... Man if they pan out.....

Troy Percival

The Yankees are one of the 8-10 teams interested in reliever Troy Percival. He was great for St. louis and would definitely help the bullpen.

Project P46

Steve Lombardi does an amazing job on his own at waswatching.com. He started Project P46 in which he asks all Yankees fans to send Andy Pettitte a letter encouraging him to be a Yankee and showing our appreciation for everything he`s done. Its not a terrible idea and I`m sure Andy would at least be happy to know he has so many fans out there.

Shelley Duncan Blood Clot

Shelly has/had a blood clot in his arm and was released from the hospital today. I`m not sure what this means but I`m sure we all hope he recovers well.

40 Man Roster Stuff

Fransisco Cervelli, Scott Patterson, Stephen White, and Jeff Marquez were added to the 40 man roster which means they can't be taken in the Rule V draft. That makes it 39 without Posada, Rodriguez, and Rivera added. I guess Pavano will be released and they`ll find other room elswhere.

Damon for Jenks?

The Yankees are supposedly interested in trading for Bobby Jenks of the White Sox. Either Damon or Cabrera would probably be in it. I`d do that with Damon and pick up part of his salary but not Cabrera. That gives us a very good 8th/9th inning combination.

Alex is MVP

A-Rod was named MVP today. Only the two writers from Detroit voted for Magglio Ordonez instead of him. I think he deserved it but it should have been closer. His amazing season has been described a million different times so I won't get into that again now. Its his 3rd MVP and 2nd in 3 years.

Interestingly its the third year in the row the Yankees had arguably the player deserving the MVP. In 2005 it was Alex, 2006 it was Jeter, and this year it was, of course, Alex again. Those three years they missed the playoffs. I`m not one of those people that think that having the best player in baseball is a bad thing but its just an interesting note.

Enter Sandman

The New York post is reporting that Mariano Rivera is expected to take the Yankees 3 year, 45 million dollar offer. I guess its a good deal. It keep Joba in the rotation. Now go out and get some middle relievers. I`d still pursue Cordero though as a setup man.

Mike Lowell

We`ve heard a lot about a potential 4 year, 60 million dollar deal for Mike Lowell to play first. Previously, I was completely against it but I`ve been told by a few Boston fans he was never offered arbitration and if the Yankees signed him they wouldn't lose draft picks.

Lowell was originally a Yankees prospect and was supposed to be the guy to replace Scott Brocius but was traded away to the Marlins in 1999 after Brocius' great 1998. He had some very nice seasons with them and posted EQA's above .270 in every full year he played except one while playing very good defense. That one year was 2005 when he had a .240 EQA and a WARP3 of 4.5. After the 2005 season the Marlins went on a fire-sale. Lowell had a large contract and in order to get Josh Beckett the Red Sox had to take on his salary. In 2006 he returned to his career norms with a .277 EQA and more excellent defense. Last year he had a career year though. He had a .302 EQA and a 10.1 WARP3.

One of the biggest knocks on him is that he was nothing before moving to Boston where he took advantage of Fenway. This is entirely based on his one bad, 2005, season. He`s had an excellent career playing with very good offense and great defense. Though his home/road splits are a cause for concern, 2005 is not representative of his actual ability.

I could easily see him repeating 2006 for the Yankees in 2008 but what will he be doing 4 years from now in 2011 for 15 million dollars? A lot of his value comes from his playing a great defensive third base as well. I`m sure he`d be an excellent defensive first baseman to but compared to other first baseman's offensive numbers his numbers aren't really that great. First base defense doesn't affect the game as much as third base defense either.

I`m torn on this but I`m leaning towards no. Its to many years . Just try out a Duncan and Miranda plattoon at first with Giambi pinch-hitting when necesary. Stay away from the multi-year contracts for aging veterans.

A-Rod back, done deal

ESPN is reporting that A-Rod is back for 10 years 275 million with incentives for him breaking the all-time home run record. He`s back.

Bonds indicted

And its about frickin time. Apparently the government has positive drug test results. I was kind of hoping he would just retire and go away but this is better than having him sign with another team.

A-Rod to get Milestone Incentives

Tyler Kepner reports that A-Rod could receive incentives if he breaks the all-time HR record and others. He`s going to have a monster deal by the end of it all. Hopefully, he can deliver the team a few championships.

Hideki Matsui

Yesterday, Matsui had knee surgery that went well. Remember how terrible he was towanrds the end of the year? I`ll be adding a poll about that third baseman the Yankees have almost signed. You see, you might not have heard but the Yankees are close to a deal with a third baseman, oh whats his name, I can't remember it right now but it`ll come to me ;)

Welcome Home Alex

Wow, what an unbelievable few days for A-Rod and the Yankees. However, looking back on what he`s done throughout his entire career with the Yankees it seems only fitting. During his time with the Yankees he has dominated the headlines like no other player. For the past year RLYW actually counted the amount of times Alex made the back page (129 and its sure to shoot up tomorrow). Baseball Fever made a thread completely dedicated to A-Rod for the past season. All throught it, however, he`s been the best player on the team and two of the past three years he`s been the best player in baseball.

Lookat what he`s done and tell me the Yankees would have even been in the playoffs in 2005 or 2007 with even the second best 3rd baseman in the league. Yeah, he`s made a ton of money doing it but he`s done everything imaginable for a baseball player to do to earn it and I`m happy to have him back. Did he come back because he loved New York or because he couldn't get a better deal elsewhere? I don't know but if he was out for more money wouldn't it have made sense to at least wait a little while longer?

Alex was the one that made me a Yankees fan almost singlehandedly in 2004 against the Twins. Step back and look at what he`s done. Three MVP's, over 500 HR's, .300 career BA, if he retired today he`d be going into the Hall of Fame. The past year he didn't let controversy or pressure bother him. When the fans booed him on Opening Day he had a historic April that nobody will forget. When criticized for distracting the 3rd baseman for Toronto he just kept going.

He`s going to make a run at Bonds' home run record and we`ll be there to watch it. Hoepfully, he can also win a championship

More A-Rod (yes I know I`m late on this)

Michael Kay supposedly talked to a high ranking Yankees official who said they`re talking but it isn't close to being done. Come on Yankees, get this thing done.

A-Rod Update

A-Rod has made an entry on his official site about wanting to come back to the Yankees. Sterling came on WFAN earlier and said that the deal is just about done. Mark Feinsand is saying the same thing and is probably a more reliable source. This looks real to me but its not done yet.

A-Rod Negotiating with Yankees?

A few news sources have reported that A-Rod and the Yankees are talking again. A-Rod supposedly feels like Boras led him astray. The Yankees say they are willing to talk but Boras can't be involved. However, the only way this can happen is if A-Rod fires Boras according to the Collective Bargaining Agreement. I`m skeptical that he would do this. A-Rod probably feels a lot of loyalty to Scott for negotiating that famous 252 million dollar deal but we`ll see. The Daily News cited a source saying the deal would be about 275 million dollars for 10 years. I`d like to take a little off that but that seems reasonable. I`d still call this unlikely but you never know.....

Jose Molina

The Yankees are close to a deal with Jose Molina. He did a great job this year and it was a good trade they made. He won't replicate what he did with the bat last year but he`s decent and plays good defense.

Hip Hip Jorge

Jorge Posada was resigned to a 4 year 52 million dollar deal last night. I don't like that 4th year but it was necessary. They have nobody to replace him. He`s still one of the best catchers in baseball. He also seems like the real leader of the clubhouse more than Jeter.

Ben Sheets Trade?

Ken Davidoff reports that Ben Sheets could be available. The Yankees should be interested. Right now it looks like Pettitte's gone and we need somebody to replace him. Yes, Sheets is an injury risk and is coming from the National League but the Yanks have depth. It wouldn't be to hard to get him. Unlike Santana, he could probably be acquired without them giving up any of the The Big Three.

The Brewers need relief help. Could they be interested in Farnsworth? He was great in the National League as a closer and a change of scenery could help him. The Brewers could also use some help in the outfield. Would they be interested in having Johnny Damon play center or left for them?

Johnny Damon+Kyle Farnsworth+20 million dollars for Ben Sheets?

Sheets is a potential ace even considering he is coming from the National League. It`s be a great idea to trade for him.

Pavano to be Released?

This is really a non-story but Joel Sherman reports that Carl Pavano could be released. Great, I guess. It at least ends the constant Pavano rehab stories but the real reason they`re doing it is to open up a spot on the 40 man roster. They have to pay the money either way.

Miguel Cabrera for Right Field?

To continue my series of speculation on what the Yankees could do for 2008 here`s another idea for what they could do for the offense.

Could the Yankees trade for Miguel Cabrera as a right-fielder for next year? Suppose the Yankees offer to trade Jose Tabata, Ian Kennedy, and Alan Horne to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera?

The Marlins get one very good pitching prospect (Ian Kennedy), another good solid one (Alan Horne) and another top prospect in Jose Tabata. Giving upo a guy they will only be able to keep for another year or two.

The Yankees get one of the best young hitters in baseball and the only guy available that could possibly replace A-Rod. Ian Kennedy is a big loss but he has Chamberlain and Hughes ahead of him. Horne is a good prospect but not on the same level as Kennedy, Chamberlain, and Hughes. Tabata is also a hard loss but while he could be one of the best hitters in baseball eventually, Cabrera IS one of the best hitters in baseball.

Next they trade Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jeff Karstens and money to the White Sox for Joe Crede, Paul Konerko, and John Danks

Damon is going to be basically a 4th OF'er next year with no changes splitting time with Giambi, Matsui, and Melky. Abreu is overpaid and nobody will miss him when he`s traded. Joe Crede can fill third base and John Danks adds pitching depth essentially replacing Ian Kennedy. They save some money and help the pitching and defense. Paul Konerko is an improvement over any other options they have for first base. At the end of his deal he`ll be hurting the team but they can afford it and his contract is no worse than Damon's. Karstens is basically a throw-in.

From the White Sox perspective they get Damon who can play CF or LF for them. Both weaknesses for them. Abreu can DH and Jim Thome can play first base. If they want Abreu could also probably play left-field. Danks probably isn't valued that highly (I like him because he has a good K/BB and should be easy to get) and their isn't a big difference between him and Karstens.

Miguel Cabrera can play RF. Joe Girardi is strict and will make sure Miguel doesn't get overweight. If he loses some weight he can get faster and help his range in RF. He`s better suited to a corner OF spot anyway. Crede is a good defensive third baseman and run prevention is really the problem with this team. If they don't improve offense elsewhere I don't want him but Cabrera and Konerko are both definitely offensive improvements.

1) Derek Jeter (SS)
2) Robinson Cano (2B)
3) Hideki Matsui (LF)
4) Miguel Cabrera (RF)
5) Paul Konerko (1B)
6) Jason Giambi (DH)
7) Jorge Posada (C)
8) Joe Crede (3B)
9) Melky Cabrera (CF)

Joe Torre Is Writing a Book

Joe`s writing a book about his time with the Yankees. I think it`ll be an interesting read and I`ll probably buy it. Maybe we`ll learn how controlling Steinbrenner really is/was. Joe was a great manager and a smart guy.

Miguel Tejada

The Yankees are reportedly interested in Miguel Tejada to fill third base. I don't think it would be a bad idea. He`s set to get 13 million a year for 2008 and 2009 which isn't bad. However, Tejada had an off year last year. His EQA was .284 and he had a WARP3 of 4.8. If he bounces back he`s a bargain but their`s been a lot of steroid rumors about him and we don't want another Giambi.

Andy Pettitte Declines Option

According to ESPN Andy Pettitte will be declining his one year player option for 16 million dollars.

I really hope this is just Pettitte needing some time to think things over and that he will come back. They need 200 innings from him next year. On the other hand, suppose he decides to retire, anyone think that the Yankees might actually decide to rebuild?

What Now? The Starting Pitching

Last years Yankees were sorely lacking in the critical area of starting pitching. The season began with Wang, the ace, on the DL and Carl Pavano starting on Opening Day. Mike Mussina was also injured at the beginning of the year and the only really solid guy was Andy Pettitte. Kei Igawa, the signing from Japan, was terrible serving up home runs left and right. Speaking of home runs, remember when Chase Wright gave up 4 in a row to Boston? Tyler Clippard had a few decent performances but got sent back down after an overall unimpressive performance. Jeff Karstens wasn't good and got injured on a comebacker from a Red Sox player early on (Pedroia?). Matt DeSalvo got bombed repeatedly. Darell Rasner was good but also got injured and was often passed over in favor of other, lesser pitchers. After a while, Phil Hughes got called up. He had an overall poor debut but showed good signs and was wildly cheered by the Yankees Stadium crowd. In his next start he had a near no-hitter but pulled his hamstring in the 8th inning (he later sprained an ankle badly) and missed most of the season. Eventually, Roger Clemens announced his return to the Yankees and added, if not a great pitcher, a steady reliable pitcher. Just before the All Star Break things turned around and Wang and Pettitte became a feared combination. Mussina and Clemens were decent and by August Phil Hughes was back.Hughes wasn't great but he was good. Mussina dropped off a lot in September and was even replaced by Ian Kennedy at one point. Wang collapsed in the playoffs in the playoffs, Pettitte did well, and Clemens did poorly pitching hurt. Overall the rotation consisted off a lot of bad replacements and 5 solid but not great pitchers.


This year Joba will be back to starting and is expected to be in the ML rotation, Hughes will start the season in the Bronx, and Wang will be back. Andy Pettitte has a player option for 16 million dollars he is expected to pick up and should be a valuable innings eater. Mike Mussina is back and after the off-season maybe he can get his "fastball" up to the high 80's instead of the 84 mph FB we were seeing last year. If he can regain the seperation between his fastball and change he could also be solid. If not Mini-Moose (Ian Kennedy) will be waiting in Scranton to take Mike's job.


Darell Rasner will probably still be around in AAA to fill in case of injury. Alan Horne might be in front of him by now though. Jeff Karstens definitely did not have a good 2007 and probably will be a little farther down the list now. We saw many promising signs with Kei Igawa as well but I think he`d be better suited for relief. Chase Wright was rushed last year and should start the season in AAA. Matt DeSalvo is an interesting case. He was great in AAA and actually made BA's top 100 prospect list once this year but was terrible in the majors. Maybe it was just nerves because he didn't look like the guy the stats and people described pitching in AAA.


Finally, their's still Roger Clemens. After a dramatic announcement of his return to pinstripes he helped turn this team around. I love Rocket and his intensity but the guy pitching in the ALDS against the Indians a month ago looked done. He`s not better than an average pitcher now other than the experience he brings to young players. I`d love to see him back for a reasonable deal but not another 28 million dollar deal. Maybe 13 million protrated would do it. If he wants to come back and we have room for him great but you can't purposely keep a spot open for him.




I think Hughes and Joba both have the potential to be aces this year. The Hughes we saw late last year wasn't the real Hughes. As Fabian Mc'Nally at The Minor Yankees Blog pointed out, he was taking a shorter stride than he was taking in the past. Possibly out fear of another injury or it might have still been bothering him. As a result he lost velocity on his fastball and became a worse pitcher. When Dave Eiland came up this problem was partially fixed (which explains his success in September compared to when he first got back) and since it looks like he`ll be the new pitching coach I`d be surprised to see this continue. Both are on innings limits (180 for Hughes I think and 160 for Joba but I`m not sure on this). Making Joba a reliever, even if Rivera leaves, would be a waste of his talents (yes, I also think Papelbon is being wasted as a closer and would have more value as a starter). Trading either one in a desperate bid for Santana would be dumb as well.


Wang is a decent pitcher and nothing more. He is a sinker baller which means he is very vulnerable to luck. His SO's increased last year with an improved slider which should help but he still allows a ton of balls in play. Wang has benn lucky the past two years and had excellent ERA's but it could easily turn around this year and he could have a below average ERA. He needs to keep working on that slider and striking more guys out. I love him but I wouldn't be opposed to trading him because his value will never be higher than it is now after two consecutive 19 win seasons.


Pettitte is a solid innings eater. He was decent last year but not great. His K/BB was down to 2.04 and his GB% remained about the same. He suffered from a terrible lack of run support all year and had only two bad stretches all season. One at about the ASB and another, less significant September slump. He has a 16 million dollar option for 2008 he`s expected to pick up. He `ll be a good middle of the rotation starter next year and will be a solid veteran prescence. He`s given a great pitcher for the Yanks and has given them some amazing moments but this could be his last year. He almost retired before last year. He`s a borderline HoF candidate but I doubt he`ll make it in. If he has a Cy Young caliber season it might be enough to get him in and convince him to pitch another few years. It probably won't happen but weirder things have happened. He`s arguably one of the top five Yankees pitchers of all time as well.



Mussina has one year left on his contract for 11.5 million dollars. After a fantastic 2006 he had a terrible 2007. His K/BB dropped all the way from 4.91 to 2.60. On its own that still looks okay but it was more a product of not walking people than striking guys out. His GB% was also a terrrible 41.9%. He went from throwing 88-90 mph to throwing 84-86 this year. In September Ian Kennedy took over for him and almost pushed him off the playoff roster. However, after resting he came back strong and his fastball was back up to 88 mph. The key for him is to get that seperation between his fastball and changeup that he was lacking last year. Hopefully, after an off-season of conditioning and under the stricter regime of Joe Girardi he`ll get his fastball velocity up to where he needs it to be to be effective. Mussina is another borderline HoF candidate but he`s a LOT closer than Pettitte. Mussina's been critisized a lot but he`s been a great Yankee and is also arguably in the top 5 all-time Yankees starters.

A trade suggestion I heard that I liked is Wang+Kennedy+Damon+DeSalvo+Money for Santana. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and would give us the ace we`ve been looking for. Wang is a very nice pitcher but that's all he is and his value will never be higher. Kennedy could also become a very good pitcher but he`s not on the same level as Phil or Joba and we`ve got depth. Damon is pretty good but he`s declining and overpaid. We don't have room for him to play either. He can fill Tori Hunter's spot in CF for the Twins. DeSalvo had great minor league numbers but the Yankees have other more talented players.

Proposed 2008 Starting Rotation:

1) Johan Santana
2) Joba Chamberlain
3) Phillip Hughes
4) Andy Pettitte
5) Mike Mussina

6) Alan Horne
7) Darell Rasner
8) Jeff Karstens

Catching Up

I`ve been busy and haven't been able to keep up with the flurry of news lately.

First of all congratulations to Joe Torre on his job with the Dodgers. He showed everybody it really wasn't about the money after all and he wanted job security. I usually root against that team that stole the Dodgers from Brooklyn and committed the greatest crime against baseball ever (even more than anything Victor Conte ever did) but I think I`ll have to root for them now.

I`m happy with the Girardi hiring. Its whether they`re rebuilding or retooling he`s the right guy for the job. 7 million for 3 years seems pretty reasonable to. It tells me they really would have rather had Girardi then Torre to. I`ve heard a lot of talk about Girardi's poor handling of the starting pitching staff. Almost the entire Marlins staff got injured this year. I think that Eiland knows these young pitchers though and won't let them be overworked. Cash won't let anything happen to Hughes and Joba's arm either. Remember, both are still on innings limits because last year was Joba's first full year and Hughes missed time because of his injury.

Bobby Abreu's option was picked up today and from what Cash said today its obvious they don't plan on trading him. On the bright side it makes sure don't have to watch Damon's wet noodle arm in RF but they`re probably not going to rebuild now. Its not terrible news, he`ll just be a stop-gap for some of the OF prospects but its not the direction I would have gone.

What Now? The Lineup

Its time to rebuild this team and start over. It stinks to do this in the last year of the new stadium but a new era must begin. Year after year the Yankees have built teams just good enough to get into the playoffs but not built for playoff success. If the Yankees do as expected and bring back Rivera and Posada, add a few relievers, and find a third baseman somewhere they will be in same spot as usual. Just barely good enough to get in but not good enough to win it. This team might not even be good enough to get in either. I think its time to blow things up and make some radical changes.

The offense loses the best third baseman in history having the best season a third baseman's ever had and most of the rest of the offense is on the wrong side of 30 and will be declining. Sorry optimistic Yankees fans, but losing A-Rod IS a crippling blow.

If I where the Yankees GM I`d pick up Abreu's option and trade him. He`s 34 and has an option for 16 million per year which is to much. Plus their are rumors about him being in the coming Mitchell Report. Pick up some of his contract and maybe you can put him in a package for something decent.

Damon also has a big contract, is aging, and had an off-year last year. He can't run as well anymore and that's a big part of his value. He`s losing things pretty fast and while he could bounce back its not worth the risk of hanging on to him for another 3 years. Same deal with Abreu. Send him and Abreu to another team and maybe you can get a solid young third or first baseman.

Though many are calling for Giambi to be traded I think that its to late. We won't get anything for him at all and his contract is almost done. A 22 million dollar contract plus another 5 million dollar buyout for Giambi is the definition of untradeable. I don't think he`ll do anything but if we get rid of him we get nothing in return and pay most of his contract anyway. If they hang onto him and have him DH then their`s a chance he`ll be the slugging but streaky Giambi we say in 2006 and 2005 and provide the Yankees with the feared home run hitter they`re missing with A-Rod. They have nothing to gain by trading him and might get something out keeping him for just one more year.

I`d listen to offers about Kyle Farnsworth but not trade be searching to dump him on somebody. He`s got great stuff and with another pitching coach and manager maybe he could be helped. We have nothing to gain from trading him and they can keep him around for one more year. If somebody wants him then fine but don't give him away to save money. He`s just around for one more year.

I`d like to trade Damon in a package for Santana I will elaborate on in my post about the starting pitching.

I`d like to trade Abreu. It won't happen but I`d still like to see it happen. Kelly Johnson of the Braves would be perfect to push Cano to third. The Braves could use a good hitter like Abreu and plus it would annoy the Mets. Abreu+Whelan+Clippard+Money for Johnson?

Right-field we should just look within for next year. See what Duncan and Garnder can do. Maybe Austin Jackson can more fast and do something in the majors.

Proposed Lineup:

1) Derek Jeter (SS)
2) Kelly Johnson (2B)
3) Hideki Matsui (LF)
4) Jorge Posada (C)
5) Robinson Cano (2B)
6) Jason Giambi (DH)
7) Melky Cabrera (CF)
8) Bret Gardner/Shelley Duncan/Austin Jackson
9) Wilson Betemit/Andy Phillips/Shelley Duncan

This offense will be a lot worse than last year's it won't lead the league and could be just about average but we're rebuilding and starting over. This offense can hold us over for the rich FA crop of 2008-2009 and give top prospects like Tabata, Montero, and Jackson another year to get ready. 2009 will be another great offensive year and Hughes and Chamberlain will have already seen the ML's for a full year.

Coming Next, the Starting Pitching

Sabbath Bloody Sabbath

Youve seen life through distorted eyes
You know you had to learn
The execution of your mind
You really had to turn
The race is run the book is read
The end begins to show
The truth is out, the lies are old
But you dont want to know
Nobody will ever let you know
When you ask the reasons why
They just tell you that youre on your own
Fill your head all full of lies
The people who have crippled you
You want to see them burn
The gates of life have closed on you
And now theres just no return
Youre wishing that the hands of doom
Could take your mind away
And you dont care if you dont see again
The light of dayNobody will ever let you know
When you ask the reasons why
They just tell you that youre on your own
Fill your head all full of lies
Where can you run to
What more can you do
No more tomorrow
Life is killing you
Dreams turn to nightmares
Heaven turns to hell
Burned out confusion
Nothing more to tell
Everything around you
Whats it coming to
God knows as your dog knows
Bog blast all of you
Sabbath bloody sabbath
Nothing more to do
Living just for dying
Dying just for you

Ozzy Osbourne describes the feeling of Yankees fans today. Personally I think this gives the Yankees the perfect chance to blow up the team and start completely over from scratch. Wait it out and see what other offers A-Rod gets and if Boras calls with a good deal take it but don't get into a bidding war. Move Cano to third and trade for a young 2B`man. Let Betemit, Phillips, and Duncan split time at first. Trade Giambi, Abreu, Damon, and Farnsworth. Don't be afraid to let Posada go but bring Rivera back for sure. Let Girardi work his magic with the young players. I`d still love to see A-Rod come back and I can sympathize with his decision but I`m sick of seeing teams just good enough to get in the playoffs but never good enough to win the whole thing.

Wow, where do I start? I have to go soon so I`ll make this quick. Boston wins the World Series which is a disaster on its own. Now they have 2 in 4 years. You know what Boston has? After 86 years they finally have a dynasty. A-Rod leaving is a disaster. I wonder who he thinks will pay him more than what the Yankees offered. The Yankees should go after him but lower their planned offer to him

Its just as I planned.....

How sweet would it be for Boston to blow the next four to the Rockies? It probably won't happen but that might shut up some Red Sox fans about the '04 ALCS .

Abreu Back

Buster Olney reports that the Yankees have picked up Bobby Abreu's one year, 16 million dollar option. I`m not sure how I feel about this. 16 million is a lot but the one years gives them flexibility to do whatever they want with him.

Interviews Complete

The Yankees have completed their interviews with Don Mattingly, Joe Girardi, and Tony Pena. The Yankees announced that the decision could come as soon as today.

I will be glad when they have made the announcement and can start working on retaining the free agents as well as negotiate with Alex Rodriguez.

Go Yankees!

Here we go again.....

Boston takes the first of the World Series games andI wouldn't be surprised to see them sweep. The Rockies had a great run but Boston's in another, better league.

Down To Three

Bobby Valentine will not be interviewed for the manager's job. That probably cuts it down to Girardi, Mattingly, and Pena. It seems like they`re slowly eliminating everyone I like.

Rowand/Santana

Saw this post on MLB Traderumors.

I don't think that's enough to get Santana and if they need more than that its probably not worth it. On the other hand signing Rowand wouldn't be a terrible idea.

Bye Bowa

According to this story Larry Bowa is going to be the Mariners third base coach next year. He`s a big loss and could be only the first loss because of Torre. Stottlemeyre is also on the Mariners staff could anyone else see Torre going to Seattle?

My Autograph Website

I have recently added a link on the right column of this page to my Autograph and Baseball cards page. I use the website to show fellow collectors of all the things that I collect. If you have time, please check it out! The link is under Paul's Autograph Page. Thanks!

Hillman SIgns

Trey Hillman has signed with the Royals. I think this is bad news. He seemed perfect for me. He wasn't a big name and could be fired, he had tremendous success in Japan, and seemed like a new school guy. So now my first two choices are gone. I think my favorite would be Bobby Valentine now but I doubt it'll be him. It sickens me to say this but I think after Valentine I`d like Mattingly.

Thanks Joe!

I am not sure that I know how I feel about Joe Torre not coming back next year. I don't think that the Yankees front office treated him like they should have, however, this does give the Yankees a chance to start fresh with all the young guys coming up now. It reminds me a lot of when Pettitte, Posada, and Rivera made there way up as Torre came along. For Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Shelley Duncan there first complete year in the majors will be with a new skipper.

Anyway, as Yankees fan I think we all have to thank Joe Torre for the excellent job he did over 12 seasons. He made the playoffs every year, won 6 League Championships and 4 World Championships. The two years that the Yankees lost in the World Series, the series ran 7 games in 2001 and 6 games in 2003. Every Yankees team he coached had a different story, from the dominance in 1998 to the huge comeback from 14 games back in 2007. For me, I have had all kinds of fun during the Joe Torre era. I don't know how it would have been under a different manager, but I am thankful Torre was around over those years.

I hope the next manager can step in and get us back to the place the Yankees belong, the WORLD SERIES!!!

Go Yankees!

The End of An Era

I came home today from school at 6:00 to read blog headlines saying Joe Torre was back. As I read down I saw edits saying he rejected the deal. To be honest I`m shocked. I guess he wanted the two year deal or maybe he wanted to stay at home more. He`s done a great job the past few years and he`ll be missed but its not a complete disaster. I`m unsure about who I`d like to see manage next year. I`d be surprised to see Torre manage another team but its possible. I suppose its still possible Torre will change his mind or get a better offer but I`d be shocked. Thanks Joe, you`ve done a great job. We`ll miss you.

Runs Created Average

Earlier in the year, when I first started this blog, I made a post about the stats I use to evaluate pitchers and mentioned a statistic called RCA, or Runs Created Average, I invented. I`m constantly tweaking it but I`ll try and explain its present version. First of all here's the formula:

RCA= (Average Pitcher's Runs Surrendered/9)+(Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average)/(Expected Outs Pitched/3)

Pitcher's Runs Surrendered/9 is what is commonly known as RA (Run Average). It is like ERA but counts unearned runs.

Expected Runs Surrendered Above Average (ERSAA) and Expected Outs Pitched (EOP) are statistics I invented. They are based on the GB/FB/IFFB/LD/SO/BB/HBP a pitcher has and the run value and percentage of the time they are outs of each one. The numbers these different types of events are multiplied are the run values of them (That is for ERSAA) and percentage of the time these types of event are converted into outs.

ERSAA= (SO* -.287)+(IFFB*-.243)+(GB* -.101)+(FB*0.035)+(LD*0.356)+(BB*0.315)+(HBP*0.342)

EOP= (SO*1.00)+(BB*0.00)+(HBP*0.00)+(GB*.772)+(LD*.1 88)+(FB*.812)+(IFFB*.962)

EOP is then divided by three to convert them into Innings Pitched.

Here is an example. John Smith has these statistics one year.

SO- 200

BB- 50

HBP- 5

GB- 350

FB- 120

IFFB- 10

LD- 100

Average RA- 4.80

John Smith's RCA = 4.80+(-37.92/(596.06/3) = 4.61

Why do I use this instead of other pitching statistics?

We all know the flaws of conventional statistics such as ERA, Wins, and Losses but DIPS statistics are also flawed. Studies have suggested that pitchers cannot control their HR/FB% as much as is sometimes assumed. As a result HR's are not an accurate measure of a player's ability to prevent HR's. I prefer GB% or GB's. It also includes the exact values of these different events. K/BB is a statistic I use a lot but it does not account for the fact that a player with a 200/50 SO/BB ratio in 200 IP is better than a pitcher that has a 100/25 SO/BB ratio in 200 IP. One walk does not fully offset a strikeout. Using LD% also accounts for part of a pitcher's control in keeping a low BABIP. A big inspiration for my work here was a post on a Mariners blog I stumbled upon about evaluating pitchers.

If you have any comments or questions please post them in the comments section.

Yankees Meetings: Day 2

At the end of Day 2, there is still no word on the fate of Joe Torre, however, there are reports that Ron Guidry might not return as pitching coach of the Yankees. The Yankees would likely replace him with Dave Eiland.

Go Yankees!

Yankees Meetings: Day 1

After 1 day of Yankees meetings in Tampa, Florida, there is no word on the fate of Joe Torre. George Steinbrenner and his sons along with Randy Levine and Brian Cashman, amongst others are meeting to talk about the fate of Manager Joe Torre whose contract runs out at the end of the month and free agents which include Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera.
Meetings concluded at 4:00 on Tuesday and were to resume on Wednesday.

Go Yankees!

I hope A-Rod saw that.....

I hope A-Rod saw that grtty David Ecklstein-like Dustin Pedroia try to hit the ball out of Victor Martinez's hand to help his team win. A-Rod needs to do the little things like that more. Or he could try and distract fielders while running the bases. Why can' t he be as gritty as Dustin Pedroia? Nomaas.org has a slow motion video of this classic example of trying to win.

Boston lost again but I`m sure thoise gritty underdogs will find a way to come back.

Chamberlain to Start Next Year

Converted reliever, Joba Chamberlain is going back to the starter role in 2008! After being converted to a reliever, Chamberlain came to the Bronx and dominated out of the bullpen, giving up just one earned run. After the season was over, Chamberlain asked to find out his role for next year as soon as possible and he got his wish as the Yankees will return Joba to the starter's role beginning in Spring Training.
Next year, the Yankees could have the following starters: Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte (if he chooses to return), Mike Mussina, and Ian Kennedy. Humberto Sanchez is also a starter in the minors who will be returning from missing a season due to surgery. Rumor has it that the Yankees might make a deal for Johan Santana if Alex Rodriguez were to opt-out and free up some money for the Yankees to spend. I don't see a deal happening since the Yankees would have to give up a lot.

Minor League Wrap-Up: Staten Island Yankees

The Staten Island Yankees close out their season falling just short of the New York-Penn League Championship Series. The Yankees finished in 2nd place (47-28) behind Brooklyn in the McNamara League but was able to win the wildcard spot. Brooklyn would go on to beat the defending champion Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.

This year the Yankees were led at the plate by Justin Snyder who played in all but 2 regular season games. Snyder maintained a .335 batting average while driving in 40 runs. On the mound, the Yankees were led by Ryan Pope who started all 10 games in which he appeared. Pope had a 3-0 record with a 2.49 ERA. Jonathan Ortiz was a great closer for SI this summer. In 21 games, he was5-0 record with 13 saves while maintaining a 1.80 ERA.

The Yankees have a lot of good young prospects that we will be seeing rise up through the organization over the next few years. Hopefully Staten Island will continue putting out great young talent like have in the past with players such as Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, and Shelley Duncan.

Go Yankees!

Rockies

THe Rockies won again yesterday to clinch their first WS appearance in their history. Its been an amaing run for them. They`ve been on fire and it came down to extra innings for them in an elimination game but they made it there. Congratulations to them and thanks for making my picks so far pretty good.

Yankees Worst Enemy Resigns

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071015&content_id=2267742&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana

Throughout the Joe Torre era the Yankees have been tortured by the Angels. However, the GM of the Angels is stepping down. He has always built teams that match up well against the Yankees and I`m not sorry to see him go.

Mattingly isn't interested

Mattingly has said he isn't ready for the Yankees job. This makes the chances of Torre coming back a lot better. I think Mattingly is right, he isn't ready. Like I said before, he needs to try out being a minor league manager to get some experience.

The End of An Era

It looks like the Boss has delivered his last ultimatum. According to the New York Post he is handing control over to his sons. He was a critisized owner but always tried to win and give the fans what they wanted.

The Greatest Bullpen Ever!

Remember back when the Boston bullpen was being hailed as one the greatest in history because of Eric Gagne? Yeah, that didn't work out so well did it? Trot Nixon started a huge rally for Cleveland against Gagne last night and now the series has been tied up.